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Momentum Ebbs, but Medium- to Long-Term Floor Remains Rock-Solid
Central Bank
Commodity
Summary:
Gold consolidated around USD $3,620 on Thursday. An optimal cocktail of political uncertainty, escalating geopolitical risk and firmly-anchored Fed-rate-cut expectations continues to underpin the gold. We expect bullion to remain bid through the remainder of 2025.
Buy
PENDINGXAUUSD
EXP
3626.00
Entry Price
3850.00
TP
3567.00
SL
3645.76 +2.61 +0.07%
--
Point
PENDING
3567.00
SL
CLOSING
3626.00
Entry Price
3850.00
TP
Fundamentals
The recent record-high print has been driven by a “risk-off” narrative centred on sticky inflation, ballooning sovereign debt and a visibly cooling US economy. Since April, the scaling-back of speculative length, juxtaposed with constrained supply and concurrent uptick in end-user demand, is poised to exert incremental upward pressure on the gold price.
ETF flows—particularly those of Asian-listed vehicles—remain a pivotal swing factor for gold. Any re-acceleration of inflow momentum would provide an additional tail-wind to prices; we therefore raise our 12-month target to USD 3,850.
A persistently accommodative monetary-policy backdrop is universally regarded as enhancing gold’s carry-adjusted attractiveness, having already propelled the metal almost 6% higher since early September. After such a pronounced rally, however, the market is vulnerable to a tactical pullback: the up-trendline drawn from the May low has been violated and longs are treating the all-time high of USD 3,657 as an opportune profit-taking level.
Meanwhile, the RSI is on the verge of printing a bearish divergence. Given the steepness of the rollover, a corrective move toward the psychological USD 3,550 mark is in play.
In sum, although gold’s upward momentum is showing early signs of fatigue, the market’s structural inertia offers investors little justification to price in a decisive regime shift from bullish to bearish dominance. That said, a high-impact surprise next Wednesday remains on the tail-risk radar.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, the gold continues to churn just below record highs.
Momentum gauges remain aligned with the prevailing bullish narrative. During the day, although a pullback has unfolded, no broad-based liquidation has yet materialized. For prospective shorts, the constructive cue is that the downward revisions in both PPI and payrolls failed to propel gold through the USD 3,700 resistance.
This suggests that, before any sustained break of the 3,700 handle, a retracement toward the USD 3,575 support cluster is the higher-probability path.
Conversely, if bullish impulse re-engages, a print of new all-time highs would require a decisive close above USD 3,700—a scenario most likely catalyzed by either an escalation in geopolitical tail-risk or a material downside surprise in next month’s U.S. CPI print.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 3626
Target Price: 3850
Stop Loss: 3567
Valid Until: September 26, 2025, 23:55:00
Support: 3607/3561/3544
Resistance: 3644/3646/3660
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