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Middle East Tensions Escalate Sharply, Oil Market Enters High-Volatility Phase
Summary:
The market expects the situation in the Strait of Hormuz to drive a continued rise in oil prices.
Buy
CLOSEDWTI
End Time
87.932
Entry Price
112.000
TP
82.000
SL
86.112 +2.972 +3.57%
5932
Points
Loss
82.000
SL
81.930
CLOSING
87.932
Entry Price
112.000
TP
Fundamentals
Following military strikes against Iran by the U.S. and Israel, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran announced control over traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, banning vessels from the U.S., Israel and European nations from passage.
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global energy transit route. As time passes, pressure on the crude oil supply chain will intensify, and rising oil prices will impact the global economy.
Within the Gulf region, oil-producing countries now have increasingly limited options.
The market has underestimated the potential duration of the conflict. As traders begin to price in the risks, a “snowball effect” is emerging in the market, accelerating oil price gains.
A weeks-long closure of the Strait of Hormuz would trigger a chain of knock-on effects, potentially pushing crude oil prices to $150.00 or higher.
Each 10% rise in oil prices is expected to lift the U.S. core inflation gauge - the Fed’s key inflation measures - by 0.1%, while reducing U.S. GDP growth by 0.2%.
Technical Analysis
WTI crude oil has staged a remarkable long-term rally.After finding support near $60.00, bulls gapped higher on Monday and challenged the key resistance at $123.
A decisive break above the $123 resistance could send WTI crude to unprecedented highs, potentially retesting the historic high near $145 set in 2008 or even exceeding it.A monthly close firmly above $123 would strongly confirm that the long-term uptrend remains robust.
The stochastic indicator has bounced sharply out of oversold territory and is now pointing higher, with considerable room to rise before entering overbought conditions, signaling strong bullish momentum.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also risen to high levels near overbought but has not yet shown signs of weakening, meaning the rally may extend further before bears step in.
Trade Recommendations
Trade Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 88.00
Target Price: 112.00
Stop Loss: 82.00
Valid Until: April 8, 2026, 23:55:00
Support: 97.28/94.10/91.19
Resistance: 107.39/111.82/115.00
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