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Medium-Term Uptrend Intact, but Short-Term Momentum Softens
Central Bank
Summary:
The European Central Bank maintains a hawkish monetary-policy stance, while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) keeps the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 3.25 % and signals that a further easing path remains open.
Sell
TradingEURNZD
EXP
1.94765
Entry Price
1.92730
TP
1.96700
SL
1.94507 +0.00633 +0.33%
0
Point
Flat
1.92730
TP
CLOSING
1.94765
Entry Price
1.96700
SL
Fundamentals
Eurozone: Recent communications from the European Central Bank (ECB) have underscored its firm commitment to fighting inflation. Although June's headline CPI showed a modest deceleration, core inflation remains sticky, prompting markets to scale back expectations for additional rate cuts this year. Several ECB officials have stated that “if inflation rebounds, we will not hesitate to raise rates,” a hawkish tone that has enhanced the euro's appeal.
New Zealand: At its Wednesday meeting the RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 3.25%. The central bank projects that annual CPI inflation could reach the upper bound of its 1%–3% target range by mid-2025.
However, spare capacity in the economy and easing domestic price pressures are expected to keep overall inflation within the target band, with a return to the 2% midpoint anticipated by early 2026. Elevated export prices and lower interest rates are providing support to the domestic recovery.
That said, rising global policy uncertainty and intensifying trade frictions are likely to weigh on world growth, potentially slowing New Zealand's rebound and exerting additional downward pressure on inflation. The economic outlook therefore remains highly uncertain.
Incoming data on the pace of New Zealand's recovery, the persistence of inflation, and the impact of tariffs will be crucial for the future path of the OCR. Should medium-term inflation pressures continue to ease as projected, the Committee expects to lower the OCR further. (NZD-negative)
Technical Analysis
The daily chart shows that EURNZD remains in a well-defined uptrend, trading above both the MA20 and MA50, which are aligned bullishly. Since May the pair has traced out a clear step-like ascending structure, indicating that buyers continue to dominate.
On shorter time frames (e.g., the 4-hour chart), however, a bearish crossover (death cross) has emerged, signalling fading momentum and posing a challenge to the prevailing upward structure. Short-term traders are advised to adopt a sell-on-rallies stance and remain alert for a potential pullback.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Sell
Entry Price: 1.9493
Target Price: 1.9273
Stop Loss: 1.9670
Deadline: July 25, 2025, 23:55:00
Support: 1.9467/1.9432/1.9412
Resistance: 1.9541/1.9571/1.9589
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