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Market Still Has Room to Fall as Supply Discharge Stacks Up with Technical Suppression
Economic
Commodity
Summary:
Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports have surged amid OPEC+ leadership's competition for market share.
Sell
TradingWTI
EXP
66.158
Entry Price
62.690
TP
67.900
SL
66.287 0.000 0.00%
0
Point
Flat
62.690
TP
CLOSING
66.158
Entry Price
67.900
SL
Fundamentals
Saudi Arabia is exporting crude oil at the fastest pace in over a year, as the OPEC+ leader continues its strategy to regain global oil market share.
Preliminary tanker tracking data compiled by various agencies indicates that Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports increased by 441,000 barrels per day in June, reaching 6.36 million barrels per day, a rise of approximately 7%. This surge in exports coincides with OPEC+'s accelerated plan to restore oil production, which benefits consumers.
The data shows that crude oil shipments in the Persian Gulf and its key chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz, have remained unimpeded, despite electronic interference affecting regional shipping due to the conflict between Israel and Iran. This trend may indicate a future pattern: actual export growth has surpassed OPEC+ agreement expectations during a period when domestic air conditioning demand in Saudi Arabia typically suppresses crude oil exports. As the alliance considers further production increases, the country may release a larger proportion of its supply after the summer.
Investors should monitor geopolitical developments and inventory data, as these fundamental factors often drive significant price fluctuations in the energy market.
Technical Analysis
Following a significant correction from its recent peak of US$77.00, WTI crude oil has been trading within a narrow consolidation range, hovering around US$65.39. Market prices have found some support near a crucial level that recently curbed selling pressure.
The energy commodity appears to be stabilizing after testing key technical levels. Price action suggests a potential, albeit limited, recovery.
A clear support zone exists for WTI crude oil near the current level of US$65.50, which constitutes the recent bottom of the decline. This level, coinciding with prior swing lows, is a critical juncture in determining the next price movement.
Sustained breaches below the current level could trigger further downside momentum, while a successful hold could initiate a rebound. The breakdown of this consolidation pattern could equate to the prior decline, approximately US$3.
The Stochastic Oscillator is currently in a neutral zone, suggesting that momentum could shift in either direction. The Relative Strength Index indicates that the commodity has not yet entered oversold territory, but the oscillator has stabilized and appears to be forming a bottom. This suggests that selling pressure may be waning, which, if confirmed by volume support, could lay the groundwork for a counter-trend rally.
However, in terms of trading, we are not bullish on the price increase, as the head and shoulders top pattern has not fully played out, and we recommend continuing to go short at the highs.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Sell
Entry Price: 66.50
Target Price: 62.69
Stop Loss: 67.90
Valid Until: July 17, 2025 23:55:00
Support: 65.11, 64.55, 63.72
Resistance: 65.90, 66.94, 67.80
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