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      Market Focuses on Canadian Employment Data

      Eva Chen

      Summary:

      Rising oil prices have complicated the policy outlook for the Bank of Canada (BoC). On one hand, higher energy revenues support the economy and the Canadian dollar. On the other, elevated oil prices stoke inflation and weigh on consumption. Markets are watching for the upcoming employment data to gauge whether the BoC will maintain its wait-and-see stance.

      Buy

      USDCAD

      EXP
      PENDING

      1.34980

      Entry Price

      1.39490

      TP

      1.33300

      SL

      1.35796 -0.00052 -0.04%

      --

      Point

      PENDING

      1.33300

      SL

      CLOSING

      1.34980

      Entry Price

      1.39490

      TP

      Fundamentals

      The BoC is currently in a dilemma, adopting a wait-and-see approach. Despite a weak economy, the surge in oil prices represents a complex double-edged sword.
      As a net oil exporter, rising oil prices improve Canada’s terms of trade. They boost national income, profits in the energy sector, and demand for the Canadian dollar. At the same time, however, higher gasoline prices act like a regressive tax on Canadian households, which are already burdened with record debt and renewing mortgages at higher rates.
      If Friday’s report shows a strong labor market - low unemployment and rapid wage growth - it will give the BoC a green light to keep rates on hold for an extended period, or even consider a hawkish pause. A weak labor market would leave the BoC facing the nightmare of stagflation: slowing economic growth alongside intensifying inflation driven by higher energy prices.
      Market Focuses on Canadian Employment Data_1

      Technical Analysis

      The intraday trend for USDCAD remains slightly bearish. After breaking below the MA55, USDCAD may have completed its consolidation from 1.3480 near 1.3751. A convincing break below the 1.3480 low would confirm the resumption of the downtrend from 1.4791, targeting 1.3365, the 61.8% retracement of the 1.4139–1.3538 range. For now, the short-term outlook remains bearish as long as resistance at 1.3751 holds.
      From a trading perspective, however, a stabilization near key support would be favorable for a bounce in the pair.

      Trade Recommendations

      Trade Direction: Buy
      Entry Price: 1.3498
      Target Price: 1.3949
      Stop Loss: 1.3330
      Valid Until: April 8, 2026, 23:55:00
      Support: 1.3505/1.3484/1.3419
      Resistance: 1.3755/1.3792/1.3931
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
      You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

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