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Market Awaits Guidance with PCE Data Release Imminent
Commodity
Summary:
The market's focus is on the release of September's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. This data could decisively shape expectations regarding the timing and scale of future monetary easing measures.
Buy
TradingXAUUSD
EXP
4255.28
Entry Price
4350.00
TP
4160.00
SL
4197.91 -9.26 -0.22%
0
Point
Flat
4160.00
SL
CLOSING
4255.28
Entry Price
4350.00
TP
Fundamentals
On Friday, gold prices held steady near US$4,200 per ounce as investors focused on key inflation reports due next week ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision.
Ahead of the Federal Reserve's December meeting, core PCE data will be particularly significant. Should inflation figures exceed expectations, the Fed may opt to keep interest rates unchanged. Conversely, if the data meets or falls below projections, it would pave the way for another rate cut as anticipated.
Earlier this week, further signs emerged of cooling in the labor market. The ADP report showed private-sector employment unexpectedly declined by 32,000, while the market had anticipated 71,000 layoffs in November. This brings the total layoffs so far this year to nearly 1.17 million.
Weak employment data has further bolstered investor confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates as early as next week, with the market currently implying an approximately 87% probability of a rate cut.
Further bolstering dovish sentiment are reports that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett may succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair in May. Markets interpreted this as a potential shift toward more aggressive easing by the Fed.
Despite closing slightly lower during the Golden Week holiday, gold maintained solid support ahead of key data releases.
Technical Analysis
Gold prices rebounded on Friday but remained within the weekly trading range. Expectations of a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve continued to weigh on the dollar and provided support for gold prices. However, bulls may opt to wait for the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index before making aggressive bets.
Nevertheless, we believe that since today marks the final trading day of the week, even if gold prices surge strongly, the rally is unlikely to be overly aggressive. Due to price algorithmic factors, upward resistance for gold will likely be encountered in the 4245–4250 range, which represents the average weekly resistance level. At the same time, given that past PCE data releases have typically exerted only limited market impact, it would be unwise to anticipate bullish momentum extending significantly further.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 4209
Target Price: 4350
Stop Loss: 4160
Valid Until: December 21, 2025 23:55:00
Support: 4188, 4174, 4164
Resistance: 4208, 4217, 4241
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