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      "Long Squeeze" Backlash, Deleveraging Signals Amid Extreme Volatility

      Eva Chen

      Summary:

      Precious metals volatility remains elevated, with gold recently demonstrating pronounced features of high-leverage speculation and passive deleveraging. The extreme price swings appear to reflect a concentrated long-position deleveraging process rather than a trend reversal.

      Sell

      XAUUSD

      End Time
      CLOSED

      4862.75

      Entry Price

      4529.00

      TP

      5025.00

      SL

      5020.49 +54.45 +1.10%

      16225

      Points

      Loss

      4529.00

      TP

      5027.05

      CLOSING

      4862.75

      Entry Price

      5025.00

      SL

      Fundamentals

      During Thursday's trading session, the precious metals market faced another wave of concentrated selling. Spot gold retreated sharply from its intraday high of $5,006 to a low of $4,805, shedding over $200 within a two-hour window. Silver mirrored the weakness, plunging from $89.56 to $73.77, with volatility amplifying significantly over a compressed timeframe.
      From a market microstructure perspective, this decline was not triggered by a singular fundamental catalyst. Rather, it appears to represent a repricing of overstretched long positions following the preceding parabolic advance. As market participants reassess the record-breaking rally since last year alongside the historic drawdown observed since early this year, the precious metals complex is likely to remain in a high-volatility regime over the near term.
      Notably, the recent "rapid spike—sharp retracement" price pattern within narrow time windows indicates elevated leverage participation. In the absence of sustained incremental buying, leveraged longs become particularly vulnerable to forced liquidation during pullbacks, creating a cascading long squeeze dynamic.
      Historical precedent suggests that following significant realized volatility expansion, markets typically require a period of consolidation to digest excessively concentrated positioning. Until such structural rebalancing occurs, the sustainability of any directional move will remain questionable. Overall, the current sell-off appears more consistent with technical or cyclical correction rather than a fundamental deterioration in precious metals' macro narrative; however, short-term trading risks have materially increased.
      "Long Squeeze" Backlash, Deleveraging Signals Amid Extreme Volatility_1

      Technical Analysis

      The 4-hour chart reveals that gold encountered decisive resistance near yesterday's high of $4,944, with bullish momentum visibly waning.
      Price has decisively broken below the MA100, indicating a deterioration in short-term trend structure. The MACD fast line is converging toward the signal line from above, with a bearish crossover risk mounting. Concurrently, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has breached the 50 neutral threshold into bearish territory, suggesting a defensive shift in market sentiment.
      Initial downside support is identified at the $4,790 level, corresponding to the prior session's low. A breach below this zone would expose the next support cluster near $4,594, potentially attracting medium-term value-oriented longs.
      To the upside, $4,945 remains the critical watershed. Until this level is reclaimed on a closing basis, any rebound is more likely to constitute technical relief rather than trend resumption. Further resistance is located near the Asian session high of approximately $5,024.

      Trade Recommendations

      Trade Direction: Sell
      Entry Price: 4916
      Target Price: 4529
      Stop Loss: 5025
      Valid Until: 23:55:00, March 1, 2026
      Support: 4854/4827/4809
      Resistance: 4945/4995/5001
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
      You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

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