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Kiwi Rebound Lacks Momentum, Strong Dollar Restricts Upside
Forex
Summary:
NZDUSD is currently trading near 0.5762, continuing its recent low-range consolidation. With US economic data remaining strong, market expectations for another Fed rate cut this year have cooled significantly. The dollar index remains firm, leaving the Kiwi with little rebound impetus. In the short term, New Zealand’s domestic economic slowdown and weakening global risk appetite jointly suppress the Kiwi’s performance, and the pair faces further downside risk.
Sell
CLOSEDNZDUSD
End Time
0.57331
Entry Price
0.56000
TP
0.58600
SL
0.57072 -0.00168 -0.29%
345
Points
Profit
0.56000
TP
0.56986
CLOSING
0.57331
Entry Price
0.58600
SL
Fundamentals
Recent US Q3 GDP preliminary reading showed a +2.7% annualised QoQ growth rate, exceeding expectations and indicating that economic resilience remains strong. Meanwhile, Fed officials have generally adopted a cautious tone, noting that inflation risks are not fully resolved; market expectations for a December rate cut have clearly cooled. This has kept US yields elevated and the dollar index hovering above the 99.00 handle, broadly weighing on non-USD currencies.
In contrast, New Zealand’s domestic recovery remains weak. Latest CPI data shows that although inflation has fallen from last year’s peak, it remains above the upper bound of the central bank’s target range; at the same time, housing and exports remain sluggish and business confidence continues to stay at low levels. The market broadly expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to keep rates unchanged for the coming months, in order to observe further movements in inflation and the labour market.
Additionally, global risk appetite has recently diminished. Tensions in the Middle East, oil volatility and weakness in Asian equity markets have all increased safe-haven flows into the dollar, which also places pressure on higher-beta currencies such as the Kiwi.
Technical Analysis
From a technical structure viewpoint, NZDUSD has formed a clear downward channel over the past two weeks, with the price repeatedly capped by a descending trendline near 0.5800. Short-term support lies at 0.5735 (last week’s low). If this level is breached, a further drop toward 0.5700 or even 0.5650 may follow.
Conversely, if price can hold above 0.5820 convincingly, a short-term rebound could open toward 0.5880. However, the RSI is still below 50 and the MACD fast line is below the zero axis, indicating that momentum remains bearish.
Overall, if the US economy continues to outperform expectations and the dollar stays strong, NZDUSD may gravitate toward the year-to-date low near 0.5600. Only a hawkish turn by the RBNZ or a broad dollar weakening could enable a trend rebound in the Kiwi.
Trade Recommendations
Trade Direction: Sell
Entry Price: 0.5777
Target Price: 0.5600
Stop Loss: 0.5860
Valid Until: November 14, 2025 23:55:00
Support: 0.5735 / 0.5710 / 0.5682
Resistance Levels: 0.5802 / 0.5820 / 0.5845
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