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Key Resistance Could Open the Way to a Technical Correction
Central Bank
Economic
Summary:
This positioning suggests that the bearish scenario remains technically viable, as the price has lost momentum at a key structural resistance level.
Sell
CLOSEDEURCHF
End Time
0.93140
Entry Price
0.92650
TP
0.93350
SL
0.93042 +0.00011 +0.01%
210
Points
Loss
0.92650
TP
0.93422
CLOSING
0.93140
Entry Price
0.93350
SL
Economic data from the Eurozone continues to paint a picture of weak consumer demand. According to Eurostat figures, Eurozone retail sales declined by 0.1% month-over-month in September, falling short of market expectations for a 0.2% increase. The previous month's reading was also revised downward to a 0.1% drop. On an annual basis, retail sales grew by 1.0%, matching forecasts but slowing from the 1.6% growth recorded in August. These readings collectively underscore persistent weakness in consumer spending, suggesting that households remain cautious despite some easing of inflation pressures in the region.
The Eurozone data also offered little cheer on the production side, confirming only a limited improvement in manufacturing activity and signaling a gradual stabilization rather than outright expansion. The HCOB Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) settled precisely at 50.0 in October, a marginal increase from 49.8, which represents production stagnation. National figures were mixed but mostly subdued: Germany (49.6), France (48.8), Italy (49.9), and Spain (52.1).
On the monetary front, European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers are consistently maintaining a cautious, steady stance. François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France, asserted that the ECB is "in a good position" after its October rate decision but stressed the necessity of maintaining full flexibility amid evolving market risks. His Latvian counterpart, Martins Kazaks, reinforced this view, stating that risks to inflation and growth are now more balanced, thereby strengthening the argument to keep interest rates unchanged for a longer period.
Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc (CHF) is finding fundamental support from increasing safe-haven demand, fueled by a global sell-off in risk assets. Global stocks and other risk assets faced renewed pressure as investor concerns mounted over inflated technology and AI valuations. This risk aversion intensified following cautionary warnings from major Wall Street bank CEOs regarding potential market corrections. The CHF did, however, face recent domestic challenges after softer-than-expected inflation data was released earlier this week, sparking speculation that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) might reconsider a return to negative interest rates to counteract lingering disinflationary pressures.
Technical Analysis
EUR/CHF has encountered solid resistance near the 0.9310 zone. The price has reacted lower upon approaching this level since November 3rd. If this pattern of rejection persists, a downward technical correction could initiate from this area. This zone is exceptionally critical as it has functioned historically as both support and resistance, indicating a strong technical reaction point . These levels were last prominently seen on October 13th, after which the pair embarked on a bearish path that culminated in the local low of 0.9203 on October 20th.
The 100- and 200-period Moving Averages (MAs) on the 4-hour chart are currently situated at 0.9267 and 0.9297, respectively. These MAs previously tracked the price's downward impulse from above but are now positioned slightly below the current price action. If the price fails to sustain its position and quickly closes below these MAs, the bearish pressure could accelerate.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 57, having recently pulled back from the 70 overbought level. This positioning suggests that the bearish scenario remains technically viable, as the price has lost momentum at a key structural resistance level. A confirmed break below the converging moving averages would be the trigger for an extended move lower.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Sell
Entry price: 0.9314
Target price: 0.9265
Stop loss: 0.9335
Validity: Nov 18, 2025 15:00:00
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