In the UK, the latest data showed that food inflation climbed again to 4.0% in July, the sixth consecutive month of upward movement, mainly driven by disturbances in global supplies such as meat and tea. Headline retail price inflation remains moderate, but rising food costs are pressuring consumer purchasing. This phenomenon has made the market more cautious about the UK's growth prospects and has increased the Bank of England's monetary policy dilemma.

At last month's monetary policy meeting, the Bank of England decided to keep the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% by a majority of 6 votes to 3. Meanwhile, three members voted for a 25-basis-point rate cut, reflecting internal concerns about the economic slowdown and expectations of inflation easing. The market generally expects that the Bank of England may launch the first rate cut in August or September, but if structural price pressures such as food and energy are difficult to ease in the short term, the pace of rate cuts may be delayed. In the US, bullish factors have been repeatedly reported this week. The dollar index has remained strong, rising by over 2.2% this month, approaching the 99.00 mark. This is partly due to the favorable trade agreement between the US and Europe, and partly because of a series of trade agreements signed recently between the US and Asian-Pacific countries, boosting market demand for the dollar. At the same time, although some dovish officials in the Federal Reserve still expect an interest rate cut this year, the majority of hawkish officials prefer to maintain high interest rates to combat inflation. This has made the dollar's short-term strength difficult to change.

In the daily chart, GBPUSD has fallen through the 60-day SMA since falling back from the high of 1.3788. Meanwhile, the 10-day SMA and 20-day SMA are down through the 60-day SMA to form a dead cross, which is exerting pressure on the exchange rate.

At present, the candlestick in the GBPUSD daily chart has formed a head and shoulders top pattern. The trend in the short term may be more inclined to fall, but the RSI indicator has returned to around 39, indicating that it has entered the oversold zone. There may be a rebound demand in the short term. It is recommended to wait for the rebound to end and then go short at highs.

Trading direction: sell

Entry price: 1.3395

Target price: 1.3130

Stop loss: 1.3520

Expiration date: 2025-08-13 23:00:00

Support: 1.3307, 1.3110

Resistance: 1.3400, 1.358