U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are set to meet this week in Alaska, the first face-to-face meeting between the leaders of the two major powers since Putin met with Biden in Geneva in 2021. It is widely believed that the upcoming talks could be a step toward ending the full-scale military conflict in Ukraine that began in 2022. The anticipation of the talks is easing geopolitical tensions, which is reflected in the downward trend of gold prices. At the same time, after the White House "Clarified" the gold tariff rumors, Trump posted yesterday, promising not to impose tariffs on gold. With this, the market finally understood that the U.S. never had any intention of taxing gold from the beginning. This left investors who have been stockpiling gold in New York since February thoroughly disillusioned, and gold inventories at COMEX in New York kept declining from April. As New York futures prices surged and then pulled back, London spot prices also moved lower accordingly. This round of bearish momentum is likely to continue for some time. 

Trump also declared a public safety emergency in Washington, D.C. yesterday, reflecting tensions between the ruling party and the Democratic leadership in the capital. Rising risk aversion boosted both U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar higher, while U.S. stocks saw a brief decline. 

Reflected in the daily chart, gold is forming a triangular consolidation between the Bollinger Upper and Lower Bands, oscillating within the range of 3248 to 3452. The MACD bullish histogram is gradually shrinking, a signal of a potential bearish divergence. The RSI is at 49, not yet in oversold territory. If gold fails to hold above 3328 in the short term, it may further decline toward the Bollinger Lower Band and previous support levels at 3280 and 3120. However, if it can consistently hold above the Bollinger Middle Band, it may rally up to 3500 or even the psychological level of 4000. Additionally, the daily highs are getting lower, another bearish signal that needs further caution regarding the possibility of a significant downward move. Regarding the weekly chart, the MACD lines are pulling back toward the zero axis but remain relatively far from it, indicating that the consolidation is not yet complete. The RSI stands at 59, not in overbought territory. Overall, there is a high probability that the adjustment will continue toward the Bollinger Middle Band or the EMA50 level, around 3230 and 3000, respectively. Thus, selling at highs is better.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 3350

Target price: 3280

Stop loss: 3400

Support: 3300/3280/3120

Resistance: 3400/3439/3500