On Tuesday morning (November 25th, 2025), Russia launched a series of attacks on Ukraine's capital, Kyiv, targeting residential buildings and energy infrastructure. The strikes came after weekend negotiations in Switzerland between U.S. and Ukrainian representatives on a U.S.-brokered plan aimed at ending the nearly four-year war. The White House said President Donald Trump remains hopeful and optimistic about reaching an agreement, but also warned that any progress carries uncertainty. According to a Ukrainian official, the U.S. peace proposal for Russia and Ukraine currently contains 19 points and does not impose strict limits on the size of the Ukrainian military. However, these changes are likely difficult for Russia to accept. Meanwhile, according to the Gaza Government Media Office, Israel violated the U.S.-brokered Gaza ceasefire agreement at least 497 times over 44 days. These developments keep geopolitical risks alive and serve as another factor supporting safe-haven precious metals prices.

Markets widely expect the Fed to cut rates at its December policy meeting, which is driving gold higher. Traders are awaiting the release later Tuesday of the U.S. ADP employment change report, retail sales data, and producer price index. Several Fed officials have signaled support for a December rate cut, lending further support to gold. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Monday that current data show the U.S. labor market remains weak enough to warrant another 25-basis-point rate cut at the December meeting. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly also stated that, given increasing fragility in the labor market, the Fed should lower rates. Bart Melek, Head of Commodity Strategy at TD Securities, remarked: "The market is increasingly getting convinced that the U.S. Federal Reserve is on track to cut interest rates in December." Lower interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, thereby supporting the price of this non-yielding metal. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets now see nearly an 80% chance of a 25-basis-point cut next month, up from a previous 30% probability. Traders are closely watching the latest U.S. economic data due out later Tuesday for more clues on monetary policy. The September Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month, while retail sales are forecast to increase 0.4% MoM. If these figures beat expectations, they could boost the dollar and weigh on dollar-denominated commodity prices. 

Based on the 4-hour chart, gold's Bollinger Bands are opening upward, with price oscillating along the upper band in an uptrend. In the short term, gold remains within a large triangle consolidation pattern. A golden cross is formed, and both the MACD and signal lines move back above the zero line, indicating the reversal of the downtrend. RSI stands at 61, reflecting strong bullish sentiment, while resistance levels stay at $4155 and $4196. The daily chart, however, suggests a weakening MACD uptrend, while the price fails to make new highs — a sign of bearish divergence. This suggests a higher likelihood of near-term declines. Support lies at the Bollinger lower Band and the EMA50, at $3920 and $3974, respectively. RSI is at 58, placing the price in the optimistic zone, but successive highs are trending lower. Thus, selling at highs is recommended.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 4143

Target price: 3600

Stop loss: 4390

Support: 3900/3800/3600

Resistance: 4380/4500/5000