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Head and Shoulders Pattern Still in Play, Bears Eyeing 1.1200
Forex
Summary:
The latest retail data from the Eurozone indicates weak consumer confidence, which may weigh on the euro in the short term, pushing it lower.
Sell
CLOSEDEURUSD
End Time
1.15362
Entry Price
1.12500
TP
1.15900
SL
1.15452 -0.00186 -0.16%
538
Points
Loss
1.12500
TP
1.15900
CLOSING
1.15362
Entry Price
1.15900
SL
Fundamentals
Yesterday, the Eurozone's September retail sales data were released, highlighting the region's weak consumer sentiment. The negative monthly growth rate of -0.1% shows that consumer spending continues to decline, and the figure came in worse than market expectations. This not only signals a slowdown in consumer demand within the Eurozone but may also suggest broader economic pressures. As consumer expenditure makes a significant contribution to the Eurozone's GDP, the weakness in retail sales could further fuel concerns about an economic slowdown.
The softness in Eurozone consumption will undoubtedly impact the overall economic performance of the region. If this trend persists, the European Central Bank (ECB) may maintain an accommodative monetary policy in the coming months and could even delay the normalization of its policy stance. This further erodes market confidence in the Eurozone economy and boosts the preference for the US dollar. Although the United States is also facing some economic slowdown pressures, the Federal Reserve's firmer stance, along with the US dollar's appeal as a safe-haven asset, has strengthened the dollar's relative advantage over the euro.
Additionally, the rebound in the US Dollar Index has added downward pressure on the euro. The dollar has strengthened recently amid easing US-China trade tensions, particularly as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell adopted a more hawkish tone, further reinforcing the downward trajectory of EUR/USD.
Technical Analysis
Based on the daily chart, the neckline of the recent head and shoulders pattern in EUR/USD—located at 1.1580—was decisively breached. Following a drop to 1.1468 on Wednesday, the pair rebounded slightly but remains below 1.1580 today, trading in a weak and consolidative range. If the pair closes below 1.1580 with a bearish candle today, the likelihood of extending the prior downtrend will increase significantly.
At the same time, the moving average system shows that recent price of the pair, as well as the 10-day moving average, has broken below the 144-day moving average, forming a death cross. This further reinforces the sustainability of the current downtrend.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Sell
Entry price: 1.1535
Target price: 1.1250
Stop loss: 1.1590
Valid Until: November 21, 2025, 23:00:00
Support: 1.1468/1.1391
Resistance: 1.1552/1.1580
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