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      Gold’s Toughest Period Is Over

      Eva Chen

      Summary:

      After multiple negative shocks, the most severe phase of the liquidity squeeze in the precious metals market has basically ended, and there may be a short-term trading opportunity for a bottoming rebound.

      Buy

      XAUUSD

      EXP
      Trading

      4450.72

      Entry Price

      5200.00

      TP

      3996.00

      SL

      4414.86 +8.51 +0.19%

      0

      Point

      Flat

      3996.00

      SL

      CLOSING

      4450.72

      Entry Price

      5200.00

      TP

      Fundamentals

      Gold prices previously fell in disorder amid a liquidity tightening backdrop and are now showing initial signs of stabilization around USD 4,099. Although the major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan, all delivered hawkish signals over the past week, which initially weighed on gold, this round of losses clearly went beyond a simple “fundamental repricing” and should be viewed more as a liquidity shock caused by a market structure imbalance.
      After gold successively broke below key psychological levels at USD 5,000, USD 4,600 and USD 4,400, margin calls on leveraged positions were triggered at an accelerated pace, leading to large-scale forced liquidations. As forced selling continued to intensify, the market saw a classic liquidation cascade on Monday, further distorting prices. The main driver in this phase was not macro logic, but structural factors tied to de-leveraging and liquidity exhaustion.
      At the same time, gold ETFs saw significant outflows, with holdings being redeemed on a large scale, reflecting that institutional investors were actively reducing risk exposure. Notably, USD did not strengthen in sync during this selloff; instead, it softened, which further reinforced the view that liquidity pressure, rather than the traditional USD-driven logic, was dominating the move.
      As the passive de-leveraging process gradually completed, selling pressure eased noticeably. By the European session, gold stabilized above USD 4,160, suggesting that the most extreme stage of the selloff may already be over. As the market returns to a macro pricing framework, prices may enter a repair phase.
      Gold’s Toughest Period Is Over_1

      Technical Analysis

      From a technical structure perspective, gold rebounded quickly after touching USD 4,099 intraday, showing that short-term bearish momentum has already been released. This area also corresponds to the starting zone of the second rally cycle since late August last year, giving it some structural support significance.
      A rapid downside probe followed by a strong rebound is a typical sign of a liquidity bottom, usually indicating that the market has completed a concentrated clearing-out phase. Current price action suggests that a short-term bottom is highly likely to have formed.
      On the rebound path, gold may gradually retrace the losses caused by the liquidity squeeze, with the initial upside target focused on the previous heavy selling zone around USD 5,200.
      Overall, the market has moved from a passive de-leveraging phase into a price-repair phase. With selling momentum clearly fading, the preferred strategy is to buy on dips and look for pullback-based entry opportunities.

      Trade Recommendations

      Trade Direction: Buy
      Entry Price: 4300
      Target Price: 5200
      Stop Loss: 3996
      Valid Until: 2026-04-22 23:55:00
      Support: 4562 / 4489 / 4403
      Resistance: 4687 / 4760 / 4839
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
      You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

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