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Gold Surges to Monthly Peak as Trump Tariffs, Iran Tensions Stoke Haven Demand
Traders' Opinions
Summary:
Gold (XAU/USD) extended its recent winning streak on Monday, climbing to a fresh monthly peak before entering a consolidation phase.
Buy
CLOSEDXAUUSD
End Time
5149.95
Entry Price
5360.00
TP
4980.00
SL
5212.96 +105.80 +2.07%
4232
Points
Profit
4980.00
SL
5192.27
CLOSING
5149.95
Entry Price
5360.00
TP
Gold prices are catching a strong bid as investors seek shelter from a fresh storm of global uncertainties, with the spot market hitting a new high for the month earlier in the session. While the metal has taken a brief pause for breath, the underlying fundamentals suggest that the four-day uptrend is far from exhausted.
The immediate catalyst for the risk-off mood stems from a dramatic escalation in global trade policy. Over the weekend, President Donald Trump unveiled a new tariff framework in response to a Supreme Court verdict that struck down his previous, broader trade measures. The administration has imposed a 15% global levy—the maximum allowable under the relevant statute—on a wide range of imported goods. This aggressive move has immediately stoked fears of retaliatory measures from key trading partners and raised the specter of significant disruptions to global supply chains. In this environment, Gold is behaving precisely as theory would predict: as a defensive hedge against economic instability and currency debasement.
Adding further fuel to the fire are rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East. The market is closely watching the clock tick down to a critical meeting in Geneva on Thursday, where US and Iranian negotiators are set to discuss Tehran’s newly submitted nuclear proposal. However, diplomatic hopes are being overshadowed by reports that the Trump administration is actively weighing military options. According to sources, the President is considering a potential strike against Iranian interests in the coming days, with a larger assault possible should diplomatic channels fail to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Such a scenario would represent a significant escalation, driving capital inexorably toward safe havens.
The macro-economic backdrop is also providing a tailwind for bullion, particularly through its negative correlation with the US Dollar. Despite sticky inflation data—Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index showed a 2.9% year-on-year increase, with the core reading holding firm at 3.0%—traders are increasingly skeptical of the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance.
The market’s calculus has been shifted by a confluence of factors. While the hot PCE data theoretically supports the Fed’s case for holding rates higher for longer, it is being overshadowed by a weak Q4 GDP print, which revealed the economy grew at a tepid 1.4% annualized pace. This sharp deceleration from the previous quarter, exacerbated by the longest-ever US government shutdown, has reinforced bets that the Fed will be forced to cut rates twice this year by 25 basis points. These expectations are dragging the Dollar Index away from its late-January highs, making dollar-denominated Gold cheaper for foreign buyers and providing an additional boost to the non-yielding asset.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, gold remains constructive within a developing bullish recovery structure, following the sharp liquidation and subsequent base-building phase earlier in February. On the 4-hour chart, price has carved out a sequence of higher lows from the $4,880–$4,920 support zone, confirming the presence of renewed demand after the aggressive selloff. The recovery has unfolded in a measured, step-like advance rather than a vertical rally, suggesting healthier underlying price acceptance.
Gold is currently consolidating just above the $5,120–$5,140 resistance band, a level that previously acted as a key pivot and is now being retested from above. This zone has capped immediate upside momentum, but price action so far reflects consolidation rather than rejection, indicating that bulls are defending recent gains. Holding above this region keeps the short-term bullish structure intact. A sustained break back below $5,120 would expose downside risk toward the $5,000 psychological level, followed by deeper support near $4,880, where buyers previously stepped in decisively.
On the upside, a clean and sustained break above $5,180–$5,200 would signal a continuation of the recovery phase and open the door toward the $5,360 resistance zone, with a broader extension potentially targeting the $5,600 highs if momentum accelerates. These upper levels represent major prior supply zones and would likely attract both profit-taking and fresh speculative interest.
Momentum indicators point to consolidation rather than exhaustion. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has cooled from elevated levels and is stabilizing in neutral-to-positive territory, suggesting that bullish momentum is resetting rather than rolling over. This behavior reduces the probability of an immediate reversal and supports the case for further upside after consolidation. Meanwhile, the MACD remains above the zero line but has flattened, highlighting slowing upside momentum and reinforcing expectations for a brief pause before the next directional move.
Overall, gold remains technically supported as long as it holds above the $5,120–$5,000 region. Consolidation above former resistance keeps the bullish recovery narrative intact, while a confirmed breakout higher would strengthen the case for a broader continuation toward upper resistance levels.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
BUY GOLD
ENTRY PRICE: 5,150
STOP LOSS: 4,980
TAKE PROFIT: 5,360
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