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Gold Steadies but Lacks Momentum, Awaiting Next Policy Cue
Commodity
Summary:
Gold’s decline from $4,381 marks Phase-1 correction. Phase-2 likely ended last week. Expect a retest of the DMA55 at $3,907, yet the broader bull structure remains intact. Near-term bounce targets $4,180.
Buy
CLOSEDXAUUSD
End Time
4083.06
Entry Price
4180.00
TP
4035.00
SL
4023.49 -21.99 -0.54%
4806
Points
Loss
4035.00
SL
4034.58
CLOSING
4083.06
Entry Price
4180.00
TP
Fundamentals
Gold prices edged higher on Monday. After falling for two straight sessions as optimism over a Fed rate cut next month faded. The metal is now trading around $4,100, which have dropped more than 2% in the previous session when Fed officials showed little conviction about lowering borrowing costs.
The late-week decline extends the corrective structure that began after gold printed an all-time high in mid-October. The initial sell-off, the early-November bounce and the latest pullback together constitute a consolidation phase, indicating the market is still searching for direction following months of relentless strength.
Both fundamentals and technicals suggest this state of indecision will persist in the near term. The overarching uptrend remains intact, but without a clear catalyst price action is likely to stay choppy. Printing record highs is still embedded in the medium-term base case, yet the timeline skews toward early-2026 rather than the remainder of 2025.
Fundamentally, the loss of momentum in gold’s ascent began when China-U.S. trade tensions were dialled down under a one-year stand-still accord that blocks any further escalation of tariff and non-tariff measures. The agreement stripped out the risk premium that had been funnelling sizeable flows into precious metals. With geopolitical pressure now reduced, the market lacks the sense of urgency needed to extend the rally.
The recent sell-off has been driven primarily by a repricing of Fed expectations. With the market now assigning a negligible probability to a December rate cut, the near-term appeal of non-yielding assets has diminished. Nevertheless, the broader policy trajectory remains dovish. Once the current fog lifts, next year’s easing cycle should provide a backstop for gold.
The challenge is that macro visibility will not improve overnight. Although U.S. data releases resumed after last week’s government shutdown ended, neither the Fed nor investors will have a clean read on underlying conditions until the December publication schedule is fully restored. This keeps policymakers in a watchful stance and prevents asset managers from staking out directional positions.
Technical Analysis
In From a technical perspective, gold’s decline from $4,381 to $3,886 completes the first leg of the corrective pattern that began at $3,267. The second leg likely terminated last week at $4,244. Downside follow-through is now expected toward the SMA55 (currently $3,907), where a relief bounce may emerge. A decisive break below that support, however, would open the 100% retracement of the $4,244.86–$3,886.41 range at $3,750, where the correction is anticipated to end.
Within the short-term structure, gold still has upward momentum, with a target of $4,180.
Trade Recommendations
Trade Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 4065
Target Price: 4180
Stop Loss: 4035
Valid Until: December 2, 2025, 23:55:00
Support: 4065/4049/4032
Resistance Levels: 4095/4110/4149
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