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Gold Rejects $4,120 Resistance: Is the M15 Rally Running Out of Steam?
Commodity
Summary:
XAU/USD is trading around $4,090–4,105 after rebounding from last week's lows. Gold is benefiting from a weaker U.S. dollar, falling Treasury yields, and easing oil prices following the pause in U.S.-Iran hostilities...
Sell
PENDINGXAUUSD
EXP
4120.00
Entry Price
4035.00
TP
4175.00
SL
4015.81 -12.61 -0.31%
--
Point
PENDING
4035.00
TP
CLOSING
4120.00
Entry Price
4175.00
SL
Market Overview
Gold opened the week with renewed strength after geopolitical tensions eased, causing Brent crude oil to retreat sharply from above $100 per barrel toward the low-$90 range. The decline in energy prices has reduced inflation expectations, leading investors to scale back expectations for additional near-term monetary tightening. At the same time, the U.S. Dollar Index softened and Treasury yields moved lower, creating a more supportive environment for non-yielding assets such as gold.
Despite these supportive macro conditions, upside momentum remains constrained by the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting. Markets widely expect rates to remain unchanged this week, but investors are closely watching the Fed's guidance regarding September. Any indication that inflation remains a concern could quickly reverse recent gains in precious metals. Consequently, gold is entering a period where macro optimism is competing with event-driven uncertainty, making resistance near $4,120 particularly significant.
Market Sentiment
Investor sentiment has improved considerably compared with last week. Lower oil prices, weaker U.S. yields, and renewed physical demand from Asia have encouraged fresh buying, while speculative positioning in COMEX futures has also become more constructive. Nevertheless, institutional traders appear reluctant to chase prices aggressively ahead of the Fed meeting, resulting in increasing profit-taking near resistance.
Overall, sentiment is cautiously bullish in the medium term, but intraday positioning suggests the rally is becoming overstretched. Unless fresh catalysts emerge, the market may prefer consolidation or a corrective decline before attempting another move higher.
Technical Analysis
On the M15 timeframe, Bollinger Bands (20,0,2) are beginning to flatten after the recent impulsive advance. Price has repeatedly tested the upper band around $4,110–4,120 without establishing a sustained breakout, indicating buying momentum is fading as volatility compresses.
The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9,26,52) continues to show price above the Kumo, confirming that the short-term trend remains positive. However, the Tenkan-sen has started flattening while price extends further above the Kijun-sen, signaling that the rally has become stretched and vulnerable to mean reversion. A pullback toward the Kijun-sen would still preserve the broader bullish structure.
The Stochastic (5,3,3) remains deep in overbought territory and has produced a bearish crossover, suggesting upside momentum is weakening. Immediate resistance is located at $4,120–4,130, while initial support is found near $4,060, followed by $4,020. Failure to break decisively above resistance would favor a corrective decline toward these support levels before buyers potentially re-enter the market.
Trading Recommendation
Entry: 4120
Take Profit: 4035
Stop Loss: 4175
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