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Gold Rebounds but High Treasury Yields Cap Upside
Traders' Opinions
Summary:
Gold rebounds toward $4,425 as a surging Yen pushes the Dollar lower. However, elevated Treasury yields and a roughly 60% probability of a September Fed hike could limit the recovery.
Buy
CLOSEDXAUUSD
End Time
4435.00
Entry Price
4575.00
TP
4250.00
SL
4372.63 +17.41 +0.40%
3462
Points
Profit
4250.00
SL
4469.62
CLOSING
4435.00
Entry Price
4575.00
TP
Gold is extending its recovery on Thursday, climbing back toward $4,425 after briefly falling below $4,300 to its weakest level in almost four weeks. The rebound is being helped by renewed weakness in the US Dollar, although elevated Treasury yields and expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase continue to limit the metal’s upside.
A sharp appreciation in the Japanese Yen has been one of the main catalysts behind the Dollar’s retreat. USD/JPY dropped almost 1% on Wednesday before extending losses toward 156.35, triggering speculation over possible Japanese intervention or a rate check. Japanese authorities, however, have yet to confirm any action.
The Dollar’s broader pullback has taken the DXY toward 99.26, down from Wednesday’s peak near 99.86. This has provided Gold with some breathing room after the aggressive selloff earlier in the week.
Still, the recovery faces several obstacles. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield remains elevated around 4.78%, close to its highest level since October 2023, while higher Oil prices are adding to global inflation concerns. Elevated yields typically reduce Gold’s appeal by increasing the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal.
Fed expectations remain another challenge. Markets currently assign roughly a 60% probability to a September rate hike, keeping monetary policy firmly on the hawkish side.
This leaves Gold caught between near-term support from a weaker Dollar and continued pressure from high yields and tighter Fed expectations. Traders may also remain cautious ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, which could significantly reshape expectations for the September Fed decision.
Technical Analysis
Gold’s 4-hour chart is showing signs that the latest selloff may be developing into a correction rather than a complete reversal of the broader bullish structure. After falling sharply from the late-August peak near $4,680, XAU/USD found buyers around the $4,290 area and has since recovered toward $4,435.
The rebound from $4,290 is technically important. This area previously acted as a major breakout zone during the August rally, and the strong reaction from it suggests buyers are still willing to defend the broader structure. Gold is now attempting to reclaim the $4,420–$4,445 region, which has repeatedly acted as an important pivot.
A brief pullback or consolidation around current levels remains possible. However, holding above $4,400–$4,420 would strengthen the recovery and shift attention toward $4,560–$4,575. This is the main resistance separating the current rebound from a stronger bullish continuation.
A clean break above $4,575 would considerably improve the technical picture and could allow Gold to challenge the previous highs around $4,650–$4,680. Beyond there, the chart leaves room for a larger extension toward the $4,900–$4,920 region.
The bullish recovery would begin to lose credibility if Gold falls back beneath $4,290. Such a breakdown would expose the next major support around $4,140–$4,160, while sustained weakness below that region could reopen the deeper $3,950–$3,970 area.
For now, the strong reaction from $4,290 and recovery into the $4,430 region suggest buyers are attempting to rebuild momentum after the recent correction. Reclaiming $4,575 would provide the stronger confirmation that Gold is ready to resume its broader advance.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
BUY GOLD
ENTRY PRICE: $4,435
STOP LOSS: $4,250
TAKE PROFIT: $4,575
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