Amidst the ongoing depreciation of the U.S. dollar and persistent risk aversion, traditional store of value assets, gold, reached a historic high for the fourth consecutive Thursday. Continued trade tensions between the U.S. and China have maintained investor caution, while the government shutdown has introduced economic uncertainty, weakening market sentiment toward the dollar. According to Reuters, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated on Wednesday that "China's export restrictions constitute 'global supply chain power grabs,' which the U.S. and its allies will not accept." Concurrently, U.S. Treasury officials indicated that the government shutdown could result in weekly economic losses of US$15 billion. Additionally, market confidence in the Federal Reserve's two rate cuts this year and concerns among Fed officials regarding the U.S. labor market have bolstered the appeal of non-yielding gold, while the dollar remains under pressure.

The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that since the previous report, overall economic activity has remained relatively stable, with three regions reporting modest to moderate growth, five regions reporting no change, and four regions experiencing slight deceleration. Aggregate consumer spending, particularly retail expenditure on goods, has experienced a slight decline. International tourist demand for leisure and hospitality services has further decreased; however, high-income consumers continue to exhibit strong spending on luxury travel and accommodations. Several regions highlight that, amid rising prices and escalating economic uncertainty, low- and middle-income households are persistently seeking discounts and promotional offers. Manufacturing activity varies regionally, with most regions noting challenges due to tariff increases and weakened overall demand. Agricultural, energy, and transportation sectors across the regions have generally experienced declines. The performance of the financial services sector and other interest rate-sensitive industries, such as residential and commercial real estate, remains mixed; some reports indicate that corporate lending has improved in recent weeks due to declining interest rates, while others continue to highlight subdued activity. The outlook for future economic growth varies by region and industry. Some areas have shown improved sentiment, with expectations of increased demand over the next 6 to 12 months, whereas many other regions anticipate that rising uncertainty will hinder economic activity. A regional report underscores the downside risks to economic growth posed by the prolonged government shutdown. The CME Group's FedWatch tool indicates that market expectations for a rate cut at the Federal Reserve's October and December monetary policy meetings remain high, at approximately 95%.

The 1H timeframe indicates Bollinger Bands expanding upward with the upper band opening, and SMAs diverging positively. Price action is oscillating along the EMA12 and the middle Bollinger Band, while the MACD has formed a death cross, signaling diminishing upward momentum. Despite this, the price has reached a new high, indicating a potential bearish divergence. The RSI stands at 58, reflecting a cautious market sentiment with decreasing peaks, suggesting that while the short-term trend remains upward, a correction could occur at any time. As long as the price does not effectively break below the EMA12, there is a high probability of an upward move toward 4,250. In the 1D timeframe, the price is oscillating along the upper Bollinger Band with Bollinger Bands expanding. The MACD has generated a golden cross without signs of weakening momentum, and the RSI is at 84, entering overbought territory, which increases the likelihood of a short-term correction. However, as long as the gold price remains above the EMA12 without a decisive breakdown, the upward trend remains intact. It is recommended to adopt a short position initially and then switch to long positions, focusing on going long at the lows.

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 4225

Target Price: 4000

Stop Loss: 4300

Support: 4100, 4000, 3800

Resistance: 4250, 4300, 4500