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      Gold Falls as Trade Deal Hopes Dent Safe-Haven Demand

      Warren Takunda

      Economic

      Summary:

      Gold prices slipped below $3,200 during Friday's European session as optimism surrounding a potential US-China trade breakthrough diminished safe-haven appeal.

      Sell

      XAUUSD

      End Time
      CLOSED

      3206.00

      Entry Price

      3120.00

      TP

      3280.00

      SL

      3289.32 -28.16 -0.85%

      3089

      Points

      Profit

      3120.00

      TP

      3175.11

      CLOSING

      3206.00

      Entry Price

      3280.00

      SL

      Gold prices came under renewed selling pressure on Friday, paring back much of the gains from the previous session’s recovery, as investor sentiment turned optimistic over global trade negotiations. The precious metal slid back below the $3,200 mark during early European trading, extending an intraday downtrend amid waning demand for traditional safe-haven assets.
      At the heart of the market’s shift is progress on a tentative US-China trade truce. Both economic superpowers have agreed to sharply reduce tariffs and initiate a 90-day window aimed at finalizing a more comprehensive deal. Comments from US President Donald Trump further buoyed investor optimism after he hinted at productive talks with other key trading partners, including India, Japan, and South Korea. This optimism, however, has dulled demand for gold, which typically benefits from market uncertainty and geopolitical risk.
      Even so, the broader macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape remains far from calm. Negotiators from Russia and Ukraine are holding peace talks in Istanbul — the first direct dialogue in three years — alongside a US delegation. But the absence of Russian President Vladimir Putin has already curbed expectations of any meaningful breakthrough. Simultaneously, Israel's military campaign in Gaza has intensified, with Thursday alone witnessing the deaths of at least 143 Palestinians in what is now one of the deadliest episodes in the conflict this year.
      Such geopolitical tensions would typically bolster gold demand. However, Friday’s market action suggests that risk appetite, bolstered by trade optimism and slightly better-than-feared retail data, has temporarily overshadowed these global concerns.
      Meanwhile, softening US inflation and consumer data released this week have reignited expectations for a series of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. On Thursday, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand unexpectedly dropped 0.5% in April — its steepest decline since 2023 — building on Tuesday’s subdued Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The CPI rose at an annual pace of just 2.2%, its slowest since February 2021. These trends point to easing price pressures and may offer the Fed more room to pivot toward a more accommodative monetary policy.
      The Department of Commerce also reported a slowdown in consumer spending, with retail sales rising just 0.1% in April — a sharp moderation from March’s upwardly revised 1.7% gain. While this further supports a dovish Fed outlook, it also raises concerns about the broader growth trajectory of the US economy, reinforcing forecasts of a sluggish expansion in coming quarters.
      Despite the supportive macroeconomic backdrop for gold — especially a weakening US Dollar and declining Treasury yields — the metal has struggled to build upward momentum. The US Dollar has remained under pressure for a second straight session, reflecting the market’s conviction that the Fed may soon cut rates. Yet gold has not capitalized on this, highlighting the metal's current vulnerability to broader risk sentiment shifts.
      Technical Analysis Gold Falls as Trade Deal Hopes Dent Safe-Haven Demand_1
      From a technical standpoint, gold remains firmly ensnared in a bearish correction phase. The price continues to trade below the critical $3,260 resistance level and its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), reinforcing a broader downtrend bias. The failure to hold above $3,200 opens the door for a retest of the crucial $3,120 support zone — the level from which Thursday’s recovery initially sprung.
      Analysts also note the development of a negative divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggesting waning bullish momentum despite prior price increases. This bearish RSI signal, coupled with the persistent price rejection at the upper boundary of a descending channel, adds to the probability of further declines in the near term.
      As long as gold remains below the $3,260 resistance level, technical indicators point toward a continued bearish trend. A confirmed break below $3,200 could trigger an accelerated decline toward $3,120, with intermediate support expected around $3,180. Only a sustained rebound above $3,260 would negate this bearish setup and shift the short-term bias.
      TRADE RECOMMENDATION
      SELL GOLD
      ENTRY PRICE: 3206
      STOP LOSS: 3280
      TAKE PROFIT: 3120
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