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Geopolitical Risk Premiums Rise, While Gold's Bullish Logic Persists
Commodity
Summary:
Gold prices continued to climb on Wednesday as the likelihood of U.S. military intervention in Iran increased. The probability of spot gold surpassing US$5,000 this year has now exceeded 30%.
Buy
CLOSEDXAUUSD
End Time
4610.75
Entry Price
4740.00
TP
4496.00
SL
4663.00 +66.57 +1.45%
677
Points
Profit
4496.00
SL
4617.52
CLOSING
4610.75
Entry Price
4740.00
TP
Fundamentals
During Wednesday's Asian and European trading sessions, precious metals markets extended their gains, with gold maintaining its strength amid safe-haven demand. Market attention focused on large-scale protests erupting across Iran, an event significantly heightening geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East.
The U.S. has signaled potential intervention. On Tuesday, President Trump twice publicly told protesters opposing the Iranian government that “help is on the way,” which markets interpreted as a precursor to further U.S. government action. These statements have heightened market expectations of escalating tensions.
Against the backdrop of rising geopolitical risk premiums, risk asset sentiment has turned cautious, with capital flowing toward defensive and safe-haven assets. As a non-sovereign credit asset, gold has regained allocation demand, gaining relative strength against the U.S. dollar.
Historically, political turmoil in the Middle East has tended to provide medium-to-short-term support for gold prices while having a relatively limited impact on the U.S. dollar. As long as the situation remains unclear and the possibility of U.S. intervention persists, geopolitical risks will continue to be a key driver influencing gold prices.
Based on recent price momentum and geopolitical developments, the probability of spot gold breaking through US$5,000 per ounce this year now exceeds 30%. By 2026, gold will be well-positioned, supported by factors including a surge in global debt burdens, the trajectory of Federal Reserve policy, and potential volatility shocks.
We believe that the correlation between U.S. equities and bonds may remain positive in 2026, creating room for gold allocation within investment portfolios as investors may seek liquid alternatives. Meanwhile, central bank demand for gold is expected to support physical demand, providing a stabilizing anchor for the precious metals market.
Technical Analysis
In the 4H timeframe, gold is currently consolidating near US$4,635. The upward move is expected to extend toward the US$4,700 level, followed by a potential pullback for correction below US$4,500. A break below this level could trigger further downside toward US$4,430.
The MACD indicator supports a bullish outlook, with its signal line turning upward and advancing toward new highs, indicating sustained upward momentum.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 4525
Target Price: 4740
Stop Loss: 4496
Valid Until: February 11, 2026 23:55:00
Support: 4615, 4585, 4573
Resistance: 4652, 4685, 4700
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