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GDP Beat Masks Structural Fragility, Bullish Squeeze Building
Forex
Summary:
With U.S. payrolls and trade data postponed to December amid the federal shutdown, Canada’s labour print will drive the next CAD repricing.
Buy
TradingUSDCAD
EXP
1.39661
Entry Price
1.42890
TP
1.38600
SL
1.39959 -0.00013 -0.01%
0
Point
Flat
1.38600
SL
CLOSING
1.39661
Entry Price
1.42890
TP
Fundamentals
Canada’s Q3 GDP rebounded 0.6% QoQ (vs. –0.5% in Q2), beating consensus by a wide margin, as the trade balance improved on softer imports and a modest export lift. The print sent CAD sharply higher on reduced BoC easing bets.
The upside surprise may be partly statistical—an artefact of the deflation method and pre-tariff trade pulls—while the import-driven wedge implies underlying fragility despite the headline strength.
Focus now shifts to Friday’s November LFS release, the last major data point before the 10 Dec BoC decision.
We expect flat employment growth in November after outsized gains of 67,000 in October and 60,000 in September. Slower population growth should curb new labour-market entrants, keeping the unemployment rate steady at 6.9%—the same as in October and below the 7.1% readings of August and September.
The Canadian labour market remains slack: the jobless rate is still roughly 100 bp above our estimate of “neutral”. Yet a 6.9% print would mark the first YoY unchanged reading since May 2023.
The BoC’s October cut explicitly marked the lower bound of its estimated neutral range. Absent a material downside surprise to growth or inflation, further easing is unlikely.
Technical Analysis
USDCAD’s slide is losing momentum today, yet a daily MACD bearish divergence is in place. A close below the 1.3920 shelf is the first confirmation of a reversal. Slicing through the 38.2% retracement of the 1.3538–1.4139 leg at 1.3909 would seal the end of the up-move from 1.3538 and expose the 61.8% Fibo at 1.3768. While 1.4129 caps, any bounce retains downside skew.
On the flip-side, the April-to-date inverse head-and-shoulders base remains intact. Once the bull-flag consolidation clears, buyers are likely to re-engage.
Trade Recommendations
Trade Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 1.3957
Target Price: 1.4289
Stop Loss: 1.3860
Valid Until: December 17, 2025, 23:55:00
Support: 1.3937/1.3921/1.3888
Resistance Levels: 1.3992/1.4000/1.4040
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