News
7x24
Quotes
Economic Calendar
Video
Data
- Names
- Latest
- Prev.
GBP/JPY Extends Rally as UK Labour Market Defies Forecasts, BoE Caution Persists
Traders' Opinions
Summary:
Sterling stays near year-to-date highs after upbeat UK labor data defies forecasts, bolstering expectations the Bank of England will hold rates steady for longer.
Buy
CLOSEDGBPJPY
End Time
199.895
Entry Price
202.000
TP
198.500
SL
198.555 +0.060 +0.03%
1395
Points
Loss
198.500
SL
198.497
CLOSING
199.895
Entry Price
202.000
TP
The British pound was steady near its highest levels of 2025 on Tuesday, consolidating a six-day rally, after stronger-than-expected UK labour market figures reinforced the view that the Bank of England (BoE) will resist near-term calls for interest rate cuts. The currency’s resilience comes as traders digest a surprise fall in jobless claims and a softer-than-feared drop in overall employment, even as wage growth eased to its lowest in nearly a year.
Data from the UK Office for National Statistics showed the unemployment rate held at 4.7% in the three months to July, in line with market expectations. Net employment declined by just 8,000 — far less severe than the 20,000 fall economists had projected — following a sharper 41,000 drop in June. The real surprise came in the claimant count, which fell by 6,200 in July. This was a stark reversal from June’s initial estimate of a 25,900 rise, which was itself revised to a decline of 15,500. Analysts had been bracing for another sizeable increase of around 20,800.
The data offered a shot of confidence to sterling bulls who had been bracing for evidence of a cooling labour market. While average earnings growth slowed to 4.6% in the three months to June from 5% previously — the weakest pace since mid-2024 — the figure remains well above the BoE’s comfort zone for inflation control.
"Today’s jobs report underscores why the Monetary Policy Committee is so divided," said one London-based FX strategist. "With wages cooling but still elevated, and employment holding up better than expected, there’s a strong argument for keeping rates on hold for the remainder of the year."
Indeed, last week’s BoE policy meeting revealed deep resistance among some MPC members to loosening monetary policy too soon, fearing that premature cuts could reignite price pressures. The latest labour data is likely to strengthen the hand of the hawks.
Against the Japanese yen, sterling continued to push higher, extending a robust uptrend fuelled by stark monetary policy divergence. The Bank of Japan, while signalling its intention to tighten policy eventually, struck a distinctly cautious tone last week, citing trade headwinds and the potential economic fallout from US tariffs. The remarks dampened expectations of an imminent rate hike and weighed heavily on the yen, which remains one of the worst-performing major currencies in 2025.
Technical Analysis 
The GBP/JPY pair broke above the key resistance at 198.85, confirming its readiness to resume the bullish leg. Momentum carried it to 199.35, supported by positive signals from key momentum indicators.
The next upside targets are seen at 200.40, which would mark a confirmed re-entry into the upper bounds of the bullish channel. Beyond that, traders are eyeing the 78.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 202.00. The bullish scenario remains intact as long as the pair holds above the 61.8% Fibonacci correction level at 197.45; a sharp break below this threshold could signal a trend reversal.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
BUY GBPJPY
ENTRY PRICE: 199.90
STOP LOSS: 198.50
TAKE PROFIT: 202.00
Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.
Quick Access to 7x24
Quick Access to More Editor-selected Real-time News
Exclusive video for free
FastBull project team is dedicated to create exclusive videos
Real-time Quotes
View more faster market quotes
More comprehensive macro data and economic indicators
Members have access to entire historical data, guests can only view the last 4 years
Member-only Database
Comprehensive forex, commodity, and equity market data
English
English
العربية
繁體中文
简体中文
Bahasa Melayu
Bahasa Indonesia
ภาษาไทย
Tiếng Việt
Copyright © 2025 FastBull Ltd
Home News Columns 7x24 Economic Calendar Quotes Video Data WarehouseAnalysis AI Signal Pro User Agreement Privacy Policy About Us
Risk Disclosure
The risk of loss in trading financial assets such as stocks, FX, commodities, futures, bonds, ETFs or crypto can be substantial. You may sustain a total loss of the funds that you deposit with your broker. Therefore, you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources.
No consideration to invest should be made without thoroughly conduct your own due diligence, or consult with your financial advisors. Our web content might not suit you, since we have not known your financial condition and investment needs. It is possible that our financial information might have latency or contains inaccuracy, so you should be fully responsible for any of your transactions and investment decisions. The company will not be responsible for your capital lost.
Without getting the permission from the website, you are not allow to copy the website graphics, texts, or trade marks. Intellectual property rights in the content or data incorporated into this website belongs to its providers and exchange merchants.