A wave of recent commentary from Federal Reserve officials has collectively built a wall of consensus around the idea of "cautious rate cuts." While figures like Daly, Mussarelm, Kashkari, and Hammack have varied slightly in tone—some more hawkish, others more dovish—their core message has been remarkably consistent: policy is now close to neutral, future actions will depend heavily on incoming data, and no preset path is being followed. This unified "verbal intervention" has successfully tempered overly aggressive market expectations for rate cuts. As a result, the U.S. dollar index pulled back, yet gold did not benefit accordingly. The more critical factor is the market's reassessment of the interest rate trajectory, with potential upward revisions to real interest rate expectations undermining the appeal of non-interest-bearing gold. However, it may be premature to interpret the recent pullback in gold as a signal of a trend reversal. First, structural concerns over the credibility of the U.S. dollar are forming a foundational pillar for gold's long-term bullish outlook. European officials have discussed creating alternative dollar liquidity mechanisms outside the Federal Reserve. Although such plans face practical hurdles, the mere intention is symbolic—it reflects growing global apprehension over the weaponization of the dollar and the inward turn of U.S. policy, thereby driving diversification within the international reserve system. Long-term dollar bear Stephen Jen predicts that the U.S. Dollar Index could decline significantly further. If such a scenario unfolds, it would fundamentally bolster the value of gold priced in dollars. 

In other news, the longest government shutdown in U.S. history ended on Thursday after President Trump signed a funding bill to reopen the government. The House of Representatives passed the bill earlier in the day by a vote of 222 to 209, with nearly all Republicans and a handful of Democrats voting in favor. Markets anticipate that once the shutdown ends, upcoming U.S. economic data may reveal signs of labor market weakness, which could weigh on the dollar and provide short-term support for dollar-denominated commodities. On Thursday, White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett stated that the October employment report will be released. Still, because no household survey was conducted that month, the unemployment rate will not be published. On the other hand, cautious commentary from Fed officials may continue to pressure gold prices. Boston Fed President Susan Collins struck a cautious tone in expressing her policy view, stating that in the current highly uncertain environment, maintaining the policy rate for some time may be appropriate to balance risks to inflation and employment. Similarly, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic on Wednesday and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester on Thursday also signaled a preference for keeping rates unchanged. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing in a probability of just over 51% that the Fed will cut the benchmark overnight lending rate by 25 basis points at its December meeting—down from 62.9% a day earlier.   

Regarding the four-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are beginning to contract, and the candlestick has formed a doji star pattern, signaling that a potential turning point could emerge at any time. Besides, a death cross is formed with the MACD line and the signal line pulling back toward the zero axis—though they still have some distance to go. This reinforces the signal that the adjustment phase is not yet complete. The RSI stands at 62, reflecting strong bullish sentiment in the market. From a daily perspective, the MACD's bullish momentum is gradually weakening, even as the price fails to make new highs—a classic sign of a bearish divergence. This increases the likelihood of a short-term downward move. Key support levels lie at the lower Bollinger Band and the 50-day EMA, at 3860 and 3935, respectively. With the RSI at 62, the price remains in bullish territory, but the recent highs are gradually lowering. Thus, it is better to sell at highs.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 4190

Target price: 3800

Stop loss: 4500

Support: 3900/3800/3600

Resistance: 4380/4500/5000