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Focus on the U.S. December Nonfarm Payrolls Report
Commodity
Summary:
Ahead of the release of U.S. nonfarm payrolls data, market sentiment is dominated by wait-and-see attitudes, with gold prices fluctuating in a sideways range. Compared with the November figures, the December nonfarm payrolls report is expected to more accurately reflect the actual conditions of the U.S. labor market and provide a more valuable basis for subsequent economic and policy judgments.
Buy
TradingXAUUSD
EXP
4483.45
Entry Price
4632.00
TP
4373.00
SL
4608.49 +99.34 +2.20%
0
Point
Flat
4373.00
SL
CLOSING
4483.45
Entry Price
4632.00
TP
Fundamentals
During the first half of the European trading session on Friday, gold prices edged lower, but the overall decline was limited. With investors widely adopting a wait-and-see stance ahead of the highly anticipated U.S. nonfarm payrolls data release, gold lacked clear directional momentum.
The upcoming U.S. employment data is regarded as a key reference for judging the Fed's future interest rate cut path, which also makes it one of the core factors affecting the short-term trend of the U.S. dollar. Driven by risk aversion ahead of the data release, the U.S. dollar extended its upward trend over the previous two weeks and hit a one-month high, exerting certain downward pressure on gold prices.
Nevertheless, from a medium-term perspective, market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Fed are still rising, coupled with persistent geopolitical uncertainties. These factors together provide bottom support for gold as a safe-haven asset. Against the backdrop of intertwined bullish and bearish fundamental factors, investors tend to hold off on new directional bets, resulting in a sideways trading pattern for gold prices overall.
From a macroeconomic perspective, although the U.S. labor market still shows signs of slowing recruitment and rising layoffs, a comprehensive analysis of various data indicates that the most severe phase of economic slowdown may have passed. Compared with previous data, the December employment report is expected to more clearly reflect the current true state of the labor market.
It is worth noting that the longest government shutdown in history significantly disrupted the employment data for October and November, to some extent undermining their original status as the "gold standard" reference. At present, it is still impossible to fully confirm whether the relevant impacts have completely subsided, so caution is still needed when interpreting the data in the short term. However, it is relatively certain that the December nonfarm payrolls data will be more representative than the November figures overall, providing a clearer basis for the market to judge the current state of the U.S. economy.
Technical Analysis
Gold prices failed to sustain the upward momentum from the previous trading day on Friday, experiencing a temporary pullback and approaching the top of the intraday trading range ahead of the European trading session. In fact, this pause in the rally is related to the insufficient depth of the pullback in the previous trading day, as well as the market's wait-and-see sentiment ahead of the nonfarm payrolls data release.
From a structural perspective, regardless of the direction gold prices move after the nonfarm payrolls data release, there will be rationales to support it. First, a downward movement has the demand for price retracement, given that the gap caused by Monday's gap-up opening has not been fully filled. Second, for an upward movement, the conditions for a head-and-shoulders bottom pattern have matured, and a breakthrough above the previous high of $4,550 is also a high-probability event. For this reason, range trading with buying low and selling high remains the conventional operation strategy.
Trade Recommendations
Trade Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 4435
Target Price: 4632
Stop Loss: 4373
Valid Until: 07, February, 2026, 23:55:00
Support: 4435/4403/4374
Resistance Levels: 4485/4500/4527
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