News
7x24
Quotes
Economic Calendar
Video
Data
- Names
- Latest
- Prev.
Fading Bearish Pressure Near Structural Support Favors Renewed NZDUSD Rally
Forex
Economic
Summary:
This developing bullish divergence suggests a notable exhaustion in selling pressure.
Buy
PENDINGNZDUSD
EXP
0.59300
Entry Price
0.60850
TP
0.58600
SL
0.59569 -0.00175 -0.29%
--
Point
PENDING
0.58600
SL
CLOSING
0.59300
Entry Price
0.60850
TP
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) elected to maintain the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 2.25% during its February policy deliberations on Wednesday. While the central bank reiterated an accommodative outlook—predicated on expectations that inflation will revert to its target within the next calendar year—market participants were quick to push back on the timing of future tightening. Consequently, traders have now pushed the likely window for a rate hike beyond the end of 2026.
However, the narrative shifted toward a more hawkish tone on Thursday following comments from the new RBNZ Governor, Anna Breman. She indicated that the bank stands ready to tighten policy prematurely should price behaviors shift or if a robust economic recovery validates higher borrowing costs. This hawkish lean, coupled with sustained optimism in global equity markets, has provided a necessary cushion for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). Supporting this sentiment, RBNZ official Silk remarked in a recent interview that the next interest rate adjustment is "likely to be upward," citing persistent upside inflationary risks and consumer demand uncertainty. Market pricing has since moderated, now reflecting a 75% probability of a hike by October, a slight retreat from the 90% seen prior to the meeting.
Across the Pacific, the U.S. labor market continues to demonstrate remarkable structural resilience. Initial jobless claims fell to 206,000 for the week ending February 14—a figure significantly lower than the 225,000 consensus estimate. According to the Department of Labor (DOL), the four-week moving average also edged lower to 219,000, reinforcing a stabilizing trend despite a marginal increase in continuing claims to 1.869 million.
This data adds layers of complexity to the Federal Reserve’s current posture. Rhetoric within the Fed remains sharply divided: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly maintains a hawkish stance, arguing that inflation remains uncomfortably high. Conversely, Governor Michael Barr advocates for a patient approach, suggesting that borrowing costs should remain elevated until definitive evidence of a move toward the 2% target emerges. Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee acknowledged inflationary progress but cautioned that a "neutral-loose" policy stance could emerge if price levels remain sticky, framing a 3% rate as a potential benchmark for neutral policy.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, NZD/USD is currently navigating a corrective phase that originated from the 0.6092 peak reached on January 29. Despite the intensity of the broader bullish impulse, the pair is once again approaching the critical local low of 0.5929 established on February 5.
A bullish reaction from this specific demand zone could ignite a significant upward move. Critically, the 200-period Moving Average on the 4-hour chart is currently situated at 0.5890, serving as a major dynamic support floor. Meanwhile, the 100-period MA sits overhead at 0.6007, acting as a primary objective for the bulls once momentum shifts.
Our analysis of momentum oscillators reinforces the potential for a reversal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently touched the 31.55 level—a reading lower than the one recorded on February 5, despite the price remaining above those previous lows. This developing bullish divergence suggests a notable exhaustion in selling pressure. Simultaneously, while the MACD histogram remains in negative territory, the bars are beginning to contract significantly. Provided the price action respects the 200-period MA, the technical bias favors a resumption of the primary bullish trend. However, a failure to hold this zone would invalidate the setup and likely open the door for a deeper structural correction.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Buy
Entry price: 0.5930
Target price: 0.6085
Stop loss: 0.5860
Validity: Mar 04, 2026 15:00:00
Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.
Quick Access to 7x24
Quick Access to More Editor-selected Real-time News
Exclusive video for free
FastBull project team is dedicated to create exclusive videos
Real-time Quotes
View more faster market quotes
More comprehensive macro data and economic indicators
Members have access to entire historical data, guests can only view the last 4 years
Member-only Database
Comprehensive forex, commodity, and equity market data
English
English
العربية
繁體中文
简体中文
Bahasa Melayu
Bahasa Indonesia
ภาษาไทย
Tiếng Việt
Copyright © 2026 FastBull Ltd
Home News Columns 7x24 Economic Calendar Quotes Video Data WarehouseAnalysis AI Signal Pro User Agreement Privacy Policy About Us
Risk Disclosure
The risk of loss in trading financial assets such as stocks, FX, commodities, futures, bonds, ETFs or crypto can be substantial. You may sustain a total loss of the funds that you deposit with your broker. Therefore, you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources.
No consideration to invest should be made without thoroughly conduct your own due diligence, or consult with your financial advisors. Our web content might not suit you, since we have not known your financial condition and investment needs. It is possible that our financial information might have latency or contains inaccuracy, so you should be fully responsible for any of your transactions and investment decisions. The company will not be responsible for your capital lost.
Without getting the permission from the website, you are not allow to copy the website graphics, texts, or trade marks. Intellectual property rights in the content or data incorporated into this website belongs to its providers and exchange merchants.