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      EURUSD Rejection at 1.155: Bearish Continuation After ECB Shock?

      Gerik

      Forex

      Summary:

      EURUSD is trading around 1.152–1.154, showing rejection from recent highs near 1.157. The move comes after ECB signals weaker growth outlook despite rising inflation risks....

      Sell

      EURUSD

      End Time
      CLOSED

      1.15100

      Entry Price

      1.14500

      TP

      1.15350

      SL

      1.15540 -0.00344 -0.30%

      250

      Points

      Loss

      1.14500

      TP

      1.15350

      CLOSING

      1.15100

      Entry Price

      1.15350

      SL

      Overview

      As of March 19, 2026 (GMT+7), EURUSD is fluctuating near 1.153, after failing to hold above 1.155–1.157 resistance, consistent with latest data showing current levels around 1.152–1.154. The macro backdrop has shifted: the ECB kept rates unchanged while warning that growth risks are tilted to the downside due to energy shocks and geopolitical tensions. At the same time, inflation expectations are rising, but not enough to justify aggressive tightening, creating a weak euro environment. This combination weak growth + uncertain policy limits upside for EUR and increases probability of short-term downside correction after recent rally.

      Market Sentiment

      Market sentiment is turning cautious-to-bearish. The euro rally earlier this week was driven by positioning and USD softness, but now fundamentals are catching up. Institutions are beginning to sell into strength rather than chase higher prices. The ECB’s tone signals limited upside catalysts, while global risk remains unstable due to energy shocks. This creates a distribution phase where upside moves lose momentum and are increasingly sold. There is no panic selling yet, but clear exhaustion near highs.

      Technical Analysis

      EURUSD Rejection at 1.155: Bearish Continuation After ECB Shock?_1
      On M15, EURUSD is rejecting the upper Bollinger Band (20,0,2) and rotating back toward the midline, indicating momentum loss after overextension. Bands are starting to compress, suggesting a potential shift from expansion to correction. Ichimoku (9,26,52) shows price flattening above the cloud, with Tenkan-sen crossing downward toward Kijun-sen early bearish signal. The future cloud is still bullish but losing slope, confirming slowdown. Stochastic (5,3,3) is dropping from overbought, signaling bearish momentum building. Key resistance remains 1.1565–1.1575, while support is at 1.1490. A break below 1.1490 opens downside toward 1.1450.

      Trading Recommendation

      Entry: 1.1510
      Take Profit: 1.1450
      Stop Loss: 1.1535
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