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EUR/USD Holds Above 1.1600 Despite Weak Eurozone Data
Traders' Opinions
Summary:
EUR/USD traded above 1.1600 on Monday as improving risk sentiment and falling oil prices outweighed disappointing Eurozone economic data. Investors also drew support from renewed expectations that the ECB may maintain a restrictive policy stance.
Buy
TradingEURUSD
EXP
1.16151
Entry Price
1.17200
TP
1.15100
SL
1.16080 +0.00192 +0.17%
0
Point
Flat
1.15100
SL
CLOSING
1.16151
Entry Price
1.17200
TP
The Euro strengthened against the US Dollar on Monday, with EUR/USD holding above the 1.1600 mark as easing geopolitical tensions and lower oil prices boosted investor confidence.
Reports that the United States and Iran had reached a framework agreement to end their recent conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz fueled a broader risk-on mood across financial markets. The development pushed Brent crude prices sharply lower, easing concerns about energy costs for the import-dependent Eurozone economy.
The common currency largely ignored weaker-than-expected economic data. Eurozone Industrial Production rose only 0.1% in April, missing forecasts for a 0.3% increase, while the region's Trade Balance unexpectedly slipped into a €1 billion deficit compared with a surplus in March.
Despite the disappointing figures, comments from ECB policymakers Martins Kazaks and Joachim Nagel highlighting persistent inflation risks reinforced expectations that the central bank could maintain a hawkish stance for longer.
Attention now shifts to the Federal Reserve's policy decision later this week. While rates are expected to remain unchanged, investors will closely monitor updated economic projections and guidance from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh for clues about the future path of US monetary policy.
The Euro's ability to advance despite weak economic data reflects the market's focus on improving global sentiment, falling energy prices, and the prospect of relatively tight ECB policy. These factors are likely to remain supportive for EUR/USD in the near term unless the Fed delivers a more hawkish message than currently anticipated.
Technical Analysis
From a technical standpoint, EUR/USD is showing signs of a bullish recovery after successfully defending a major support zone near 1.1510–1.1520 and reclaiming the psychologically important 1.1600 level on the 4-hour chart. The pair staged an impressive rebound from last week's sharp sell-off, producing a series of higher lows that suggest buyers are gradually regaining control of near-term price action.
The recent rally has pushed EUR/USD back above the former resistance area around 1.1590–1.1600, which is now acting as immediate support. Holding above this region is critical for maintaining the current bullish structure. The sharp recovery from the June lows indicates that bearish momentum has faded, while the emergence of higher lows points to strengthening buying interest.
Looking higher, the next significant resistance is located in the 1.1660–1.1670 zone, where previous rallies stalled in late May and early June. This area represents a key barrier for bulls and a decisive break above it would confirm a broader bullish continuation pattern. Such a move would likely accelerate momentum and open the door toward the 1.1720 region, followed by the major resistance area near 1.1780, which marks the recent swing high and a critical medium-term objective.
The overall market structure has improved considerably following the rebound from 1.1510. Buyers have managed to erase a substantial portion of the earlier decline and are now attempting to establish a higher trading range above 1.1600. As long as this level continues to hold, the path of least resistance remains tilted to the upside.
On the downside, initial support is found at 1.1590–1.1600. A break below this zone would likely trigger profit-taking and expose the next support area around 1.1510–1.1520, where buyers previously entered aggressively. A sustained move beneath that level would invalidate the current bullish recovery scenario and shift focus back toward the 1.1480 handle, signaling a deeper corrective decline.
Although momentum indicators are not visible on the chart, the strength of the recovery from support and the successful reclaiming of 1.1600 suggest improving bullish momentum. The market appears to be transitioning from a corrective phase into a renewed upward move, though confirmation will require a sustained break above 1.1660.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
BUY EUR/USD
ENTRY PRICE: 1.1615
STOP LOSS: 1.1510
TAKE PROFIT: 1.1720
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