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EUR/USD Holds Above 1.1600 Ahead of US NFP
Traders' Opinions
Summary:
EUR/USD holds around 1.1600–1.1630 ahead of NFP. Weak Eurozone Retail Sales have had limited impact, while uncertainty over a September Fed hike keeps traders cautious.
Buy
CLOSEDEURUSD
End Time
1.16182
Entry Price
1.17900
TP
1.15400
SL
1.16287 +0.00069 +0.06%
82
Points
Profit
1.15400
SL
1.16264
CLOSING
1.16182
Entry Price
1.17900
TP
The Euro is trading in a narrow 1.1600–1.1630 range against the US Dollar on Friday as investors avoid taking large positions ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report. Weak Eurozone consumption data has done little to move the pair, with attention firmly centred on the Federal Reserve outlook.
Eurozone Retail Sales fell 0.6% in July, missing expectations for a 0.3% increase, while annual growth reached just 0.6% versus the 1.1% forecast. German Factory Orders provided a brighter headline, rising 2.5%, although much of the strength came from a surge in large transport orders while automotive demand fell sharply.
The main catalyst now is the US employment report. Markets expect the economy to add around 56K jobs in August, following July's 23K decline. A stronger reading could initially support the Dollar, but its influence on Fed expectations may remain limited without confirmation from next week's inflation figures.
TD Securities argues that inflation remains the more important hurdle for a September rate increase. Even a sizeable payrolls beat may only generate a modest Dollar reaction unless it is followed by stronger CPI data.
Meanwhile, Fed Governor Christopher Waller's dovish comments have cooled expectations for immediate tightening. Waller suggested current policy may already be restrictive enough to return inflation toward 2%, leaving September rate-hike expectations close to a coin toss.
For now, EUR/USD remains largely directionless above 1.1600, with the NFP report likely to determine the next short-term move before attention shifts toward US inflation data.
Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD 4-hour chart continues to favour a bullish recovery, with price holding above the rising trendline that has guided the broader advance since late July. After briefly falling toward 1.1560, buyers stepped back in aggressively, pushing the pair toward 1.1620 and preventing a deeper breakdown.
The reaction from the trendline is particularly important. EUR/USD initially slipped beneath the 1.1590–1.1610 zone, but the decline failed to gain momentum and price quickly recovered. The latest structure is therefore beginning to resemble a higher-low formation, keeping the broader bullish sequence intact.
Immediate resistance sits around 1.1620–1.1640. A clean push through this region would strengthen the recovery and shift attention toward the more significant 1.1675–1.1690 resistance zone. This area rejected buyers during the August rally and remains the main obstacle to another sustained advance.
A decisive break above 1.1690 would provide stronger confirmation that bullish momentum has returned. From there, EUR/USD could initially extend toward 1.1710–1.1730, before opening the way for the larger projected move toward 1.1790–1.1810.
On the downside, the 1.1560–1.1580 area remains critical. A sustained break beneath both this region and the ascending trendline would invalidate the immediate bullish setup and expose 1.1475–1.1490 as the next major support.
For now, the successful defence of the rising trendline and recovery back above 1.1600 keep the technical advantage with buyers. Confirmation still requires a break through 1.1690, but the current structure favours another attempt higher while 1.1560 remains intact.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
BUY EUR/USD
ENTRY PRICE: 1.1618
STOP LOSS: 1.1540
TAKE PROFIT: 1.1790
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