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      EURUSD Fails to Hold Near 1.18 as Eurozone Confidence Weakens

      Gerik

      Forex

      Traders' Opinions

      Summary:

      EURUSD is trading around 1.178–1.181, marginally below resistance after failing to build meaningful follow-through above key levels despite recent euro strength...

      Sell

      EURUSD

      End Time
      CLOSED

      1.18050

      Entry Price

      1.17600

      TP

      1.18300

      SL

      1.17728 +0.00021 +0.02%

      241

      Points

      Profit

      1.17600

      TP

      1.17809

      CLOSING

      1.18050

      Entry Price

      1.18300

      SL

      Market overview 

      The pair is hovering around 1.1786–1.1810, with ECB reference rates showing the euro holding near this level but failing to string together durable gains above the 1.18 handle. EURUSD was quoted at roughly 1.1786 for the euro’s official reference rate, marking modest upside pressure earlier this week but with intraday rejection near 1.18–1.181 zones.
      The broader macro story remains mixed. On one side, the ECB has left policy unchanged, reinforcing a neutral stance amid modest growth and inflation close to target, but markets interpret this as a lack of strong hawkish support for further euro gains.
      On the other, eurozone consumer confidence unexpectedly fell in December, underscoring fragile demand conditions an incremental headwind to the euro.
      Meanwhile, into thinner holiday liquidity, the U.S. dollar has found safe-haven bids and tactical demand as traders scale back risk exposure, especially when euro bullish catalysts are absent.

      Market sentiment

      Sentiment around EURUSD is cautious and increasingly tilted toward dollar support at current levels. A backdrop of weaker eurozone confidence figures, combined with “ECB holding but not leaning hawkish,” means EUR rallies are more likely to draw profit-taking than fresh strong buying. At the same time, year-end positioning and anecdotal flows show traders using small EUR strength to hedge risk and pare exposure, rather than adding euro exposure aggressively.
      From a psychological perspective, the inability of the pair to sustain above 1.1800 despite thinner markets into holiday schedules suggests that upside conviction is low and that sellers are more inclined to defend resistance than bulls are to chase breakouts.

      Technical analysis

      EURUSD Fails to Hold Near 1.18 as Eurozone Confidence Weakens_1
      On the M15 timeframe, Bollinger Bands (20,2) show price struggling near the upper band without meaningful breakouts, with the mid-band repeatedly acting as resistance on brief retracements. This is indicative of fading upside momentum and a market more prone to corrective reactions than continuation.The Ichimoku (9,26,52) structure reinforces this vulnerability: price often oscillates around the cloud with no clean separation above it, hinting that bullish momentum is not yet established and that corrective dynamics dominate short-term pricing. If price faces repeated rejection at the cloud or mid-band, it increases the odds of failing rallies and short-term breakdowns.Stoch (5,3,3) on M15 frequently rolls over from the overbought region in current sessions, indicating that buyers’ attempts are petering out before generating strong momentum. Such turn-downs after overbought conditions in a range or near resistance are classic signals that corrective downside is likely.

      Trade plan

      Entry: 1.1805
      Take Profit: 1.1760
      Stop Loss: 1.1830
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