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EUR/USD fades as DXY rebounds toward 100 after the Fed cut
Forex
Economic
Summary:
EUR/USD stalls near the mid-1.16s while the U.S. Dollar Index rebounds toward the 100.0 handle following the Fed’s 25 bp cut on 29/10 and cautious guidance, as the ECB’s 30/10 hold at 2% keeps the euro’s rate support neutral...
Sell
CLOSEDEURUSD
End Time
1.15200
Entry Price
1.15020
TP
1.15760
SL
1.15241 +0.00054 +0.05%
180
Points
Profit
1.15020
TP
1.15020
CLOSING
1.15200
Entry Price
1.15760
SL
Overview
The macro mix tilts against the euro after a short-lived lift from the Fed cut. The FOMC eased by 25 bps to 3.75–4.00% but paired it with language that withheld any commitment to another move, helping the dollar firm back into the upper-99s as rates markets pared the most dovish tails.
At the same time, the ECB left policy unchanged at 2% and stressed that inflation is “close” to target and the outlook “broadly unchanged,” which neither adds fresh support to the euro nor offsets a firmer DXY tape. With VIX printing around the high-teens and no new European data impulse today, EUR/USD is trading as a function of dollar carry and risk tone, both of which currently skew modestly in favor of USD strength on intraday bounces.
Market sentiment
Positioning has rotated back toward defensive dollar bids after Monday’s DXY close near 99.8, and the path of least resistance in the very near term is for EUR/USD to respect overhead supply unless U.S. yields lurch lower.
The ECB’s “good place” framing removes a catalyst for euro outperformance, while the Fed’s uncertainty language shifts the burden of proof to incoming U.S. data rather than pre-committing to more easing. With equity volatility contained but not complacent, discretionary accounts are fading euro strength into resistance rather than chasing breakouts, leaving the cross vulnerable if DXY pokes above the big 100.0 figure.
Technical analysis
The intraday structure favors a sell-the-rally stance. Price is rotating below or around the Bollinger mid-line, and recent pops into the 20-period mean have been rejected, preserving a sequence of lower intraday highs toward the upper-1.16s. The Ichimoku profile shows spot pressing the underside of the cloud, with Tenkan ≤ Kijun and the Kumo overhead acting as dynamic resistance; repeated failures at the cloud top argue for renewed tests of the lower band if DXY stays bid. Stochastic (5/3/3) has rolled down from mid-range; a fresh %K < %D cross from the 50 area after a shallow bounce typically precedes another lower-band extension.
Immediate resistance is clustered at the Bollinger mid-line and M15 cloud top; sustained rejection there keeps the focus on a push toward the mid-1.15s if dollar strength persists.
Trade Recommendations
Entry: 1.1520
TP: 1.1502
SL: 1.1576
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