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EUR/USD at 1.1664: Buyers Defend the Breakout Zone as Dollar Weakness Supports Further Upside
Forex
Summary:
EUR/USD is trading around 1.1664–1.1670, with the euro holding close to recent highs despite a modest pullback from 1.1710–1.1711. The pair continues to benefit from a weaker U.S. dollar and narrowing U.S.–euro-area yield differentials....
Buy
TradingEURUSD
EXP
1.16640
Entry Price
1.17100
TP
1.16450
SL
1.16671 -0.00061 -0.05%
0
Point
Flat
1.16450
SL
CLOSING
1.16640
Entry Price
1.17100
TP
Overall Market Outlook
EUR/USD remains fundamentally supported by the deterioration in the relative U.S. dollar outlook. The dollar recently fell to a three-month low against the euro as investors became increasingly concerned about the U.S. Treasury's expanded long-dated bond buyback program and the broader fiscal outlook. At the same time, markets are waiting for Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's upcoming Jackson Hole speech for clarification on the future rate path.
The euro also has a modest growth advantage developing. Recent estimates have lowered expected U.S. 2026 growth to around 2.1%, while euro-area growth expectations have been revised slightly higher to 0.8%. The narrowing two-year yield differential between the U.S. and euro area has been one of the factors supporting EUR/USD's recent advance.
However, the pair is no longer in the early stage of its rally. EUR/USD tested 1.1710–1.1711 on August 20–21 before retreating toward 1.1664. This makes 1.1664 a particularly interesting level: buyers are attempting to defend the pullback without allowing the pair to lose the broader bullish structure.
Market Sentiment
Sentiment remains structurally constructive toward EUR/USD, but the market is becoming more selective about buying at elevated prices. The recent dollar decline has already driven a substantial portion of the euro's appreciation, and analysts suggest the pair may consolidate around the 1.16 area unless fresh catalysts emerge from U.S. growth, Fed policy or stronger euro-area economic data.
This is important for the BUY setup because 1.1664 is preferable to chasing 1.1700. The pair is sitting close to the lower part of the recent 1.1660–1.1710 range, providing room for a rebound if support survives. At the same time, the Jackson Hole event later this week creates event risk: a hawkish Fed message could strengthen USD rapidly and invalidate the bullish intraday structure.
Current technical data is mixed across platforms. One Investing.com feed rates EUR/USD as "Strong Sell," while another current feed shows "Strong Buy," illustrating that the pair is sitting at a short-term decision point rather than in an uncontested trend.
Technical Analysis
Using Bollinger Bands (20,0,2), Ichimoku (9,26,52) and Stochastic (5,3,3), the preferred M15 bias is BUY around 1.1664, provided price continues defending 1.1655–1.1660.
Bollinger Bands are relatively compressed after the retreat from 1.1710, suggesting the market is storing energy for the next directional move. A bullish expansion through 1.1675–1.1680 would be the clearest confirmation that the pullback has ended. Conversely, repeated rejection at the upper band would keep EUR/USD trapped in consolidation.
Ichimoku is the key structural filter. The BUY thesis requires price to remain above the M15 cloud, with Tenkan-sen recovering above Kijun-sen after the recent correction. If price holds 1.1660 and the cloud continues providing dynamic support, the current decline can be interpreted as a retest rather than a trend reversal.
Stochastic (5/3/3) should ideally turn upward from the lower-middle region rather than remain deeply overbought. A bullish crossover while price holds 1.1660 would provide stronger timing confirmation. The immediate resistance levels are 1.1675–1.1680, followed by 1.1700–1.1710. The key downside invalidation area is approximately 1.1645–1.1650.
The technical setup therefore favors a controlled BUY around 1.1664, with the trade targeting a return toward the recent highs rather than assuming an immediate breakout.
Trade Recommendation
Entry: 1.1664
Take Profit: 1.1710
Stop Loss: 1.1645
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