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EUR/GBP Slides as Euro Fails to Capitalize on German Disinflation While Sterling Finds Firm Ground
Traders' Opinions
Summary:
EUR/GBP weakens as German inflation hits the ECB’s 2% target but fails to lift the euro, while stronger UK growth data and a cautious BoE keep sterling supported. The pair remains technically bearish below key resistance.
Sell
TradingEURGBP
EXP
0.86700
Entry Price
0.86000
TP
0.87000
SL
0.86725 +0.00034 +0.04%
0
Point
Flat
0.86000
TP
CLOSING
0.86700
Entry Price
0.87000
SL
The euro retreated against the pound on Friday, with EUR/GBP trading near 0.8660, down roughly 0.15% on the day, as investors digested fresh inflation data from Germany while positioning cautiously ahead of key UK economic releases next week. Despite confirmation that inflationary pressures are easing decisively in the Eurozone’s largest economy, the single currency struggled to sustain any meaningful rebound against sterling, underscoring the market’s growing conviction that monetary policy divergence may increasingly favor the pound in the near term.
Data published on Friday showed Germany’s final Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose 0.2% month-on-month in December, reversing a 0.5% contraction in November, while annual inflation slowed to 2.0% from 2.6% previously. The reading aligns precisely with the European Central Bank’s 2% inflation target, reinforcing the narrative that the disinflation process in the Eurozone is firmly entrenched.
From a policy standpoint, this should, in theory, have offered the euro some support. However, markets appear to view the data less as a positive growth signal and more as confirmation that the ECB has little reason to maintain a restrictive stance for much longer. In my view, the problem for the euro is not whether inflation is falling — that battle has largely been won — but rather what comes next. With growth momentum across the Eurozone still fragile and forward-looking indicators pointing to subdued activity, investors are increasingly pricing in the risk that the ECB could move toward rate cuts sooner than previously anticipated.
This perception has limited the euro’s upside, particularly against currencies where central banks are perceived as more cautious about easing policy.
On the UK side, the Pound Sterling has been relatively resilient, supported by a combination of stronger domestic data and a more measured tone from the Bank of England. Investors are now largely in wait-and-see mode ahead of UK employment figures and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due next week, both of which are expected to play a decisive role in shaping expectations for the timing and scale of any future BoE policy easing.
Recent data have already challenged some of the more dovish assumptions surrounding the UK outlook. Monthly GDP figures released on Thursday showed the economy grew by 0.3%, significantly outperforming market expectations of 0.1%. The rebound follows two consecutive monthly contractions of 0.1% in September and October, after flat growth in August, easing fears that the UK was sliding into a deeper and more persistent downturn.
This improvement in growth dynamics has provided sterling with fundamental support and reduced pressure on the BoE to act aggressively. Importantly, at its December policy meeting, the central bank emphasized that any eventual easing cycle would be gradual, a message that continues to resonate with markets. In contrast to the ECB, the BoE appears keen to avoid prematurely loosening financial conditions while inflation risks — particularly in services — remain elevated.
Against this backdrop, EUR/GBP remains highly sensitive to relative monetary policy expectations. While Eurozone disinflation strengthens the case for ECB easing, UK data have so far justified a more cautious BoE approach, tilting the balance modestly in favor of the pound.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, EUR/GBP has clearly reasserted its bearish bias. The pair has retreated decisively from the 0.8735 resistance level, forming successive bearish waves that have driven prices toward the 0.8650 support zone, which now represents the initial downside target.
The fact that the 55-period moving average remains firmly above current price action suggests downside momentum remains intact. This configuration increases the likelihood of a sustained break below 0.8650, which would expose further bearish objectives at 0.8630 and potentially 0.8600 in the sessions ahead.
As long as the pair remains capped below former support-turned-resistance levels, rallies are likely to be viewed as corrective rather than trend-changing. In my assessment, only a sustained move back above 0.8735 would challenge the broader bearish structure.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
SELL EURGBP
ENTRY PRICE: 0.6670
STOP LOSS: 0.8700
TAKE PROFIT: 0.8600
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