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Downward Channel Still in Play
Commodity
Summary:
WTI crude oil has recently been supported by short-term positive factors, rebounding to retest the upper boundary of its downward channel. At present, it is worth seeing whether it can break through the current pattern strongly. If it fails to do so, the near-term trend may continue to be bearish.
Sell
TradingWTI
EXP
59.609
Entry Price
55.500
TP
61.700
SL
59.302 +0.036 +0.06%
0
Point
Flat
55.500
TP
CLOSING
59.609
Entry Price
61.700
SL
Fundamentals
At its latest meeting, OPEC+ decided to maintain current production levels unchanged in Q1 2026 and establish a capacity assessment mechanism. Interpreted by the market, this is a signal of "maintaining output rather than easing" shortly, which provides only limited support to oil prices without fundamentally alleviating concerns about oversupply in 2026.
In addition, geopolitical and transportation disruptions (such as temporary shutdowns of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium and reports of damage to Russia–Ukraine-related facilities) created short-term expectations of supply tightness on the news front. However, the sustainability and scale of these factors remain unconfirmed, leading to fluctuating market sentiment.
Meanwhile, U.S. weekly inventory data shows no clear signs of destocking—refinery utilization rates and crude inventories have not decreased notably. Inventory structure and floating storage data suggest that hidden supply pressure persists. This indicates that even with supportive policy signals, upward momentum still requires actual inventory drawdowns to cooperate.
Overall, the current fundamental backdrop presents mixed signals of "news-driven positives (shutdowns/geopolitics)" alongside "physical inventory pressures." The near-term direction is highly dependent on inventory data over the coming weeks and OPEC+ compliance.
Technical Analysis
Based on the 4-hour chart, WTI opened higher today thanks to weekend-positive news. Now, it rebounds to the upper rail of the recent downward channel formed by price action. The previous 4-hour candle closed with a long upper shadow, indicating heavy downward pressure from the channel's upper boundary and weakening bullish momentum in the short term. Thus, WTI is more likely to plummet.
Currently, if WTI fails to break strongly and hold above the upper rail of the downward channel shortly, the downtrend is likely to persist. Conversely, a strong breakout above the channel would open up further upside potential, possibly testing resistance at 61.40.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Sell
Entry price: 59.50
Target price: 55.50
Stop loss: 61.70
Valid Until: December 15, 2025, 23:00:00
Support: 58.96/57.02
Resistance: 59.77/61.40
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