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Double Bottom Pattern Signals Potential Bullish Takeover
Central Bank
Economic
Summary:
The current price action is forming a Double Bottom pattern, which, if confirmed, suggests that the previous bullish momentum could repeat.
Buy
PENDINGUSDCHF
EXP
0.79300
Entry Price
0.80650
TP
0.78700
SL
0.79451 -0.00156 -0.20%
--
Point
PENDING
0.78700
SL
CLOSING
0.79300
Entry Price
0.80650
TP
In a notable policy shift, President Donald Trump reversed previously imposed tariffs on over 200 consumer products, including common imports like coffee, bananas, and orange juice. This decision was reportedly motivated by an acknowledgment of the inflationary impact resulting from increased import costs, and it followed a series of political victories for Democratic candidates in recent local elections. Despite the economic implications, the immediate market reaction to this tariff news remained marginal.
Meanwhile, the scheduled release of U.S. labor data has been complicated by the recent government shutdown. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced on Friday that key delayed releases have been rescheduled: the September Employment Situation report is now set for November 20th, and September Real Earnings for November 21st, both at 13:30 GMT. Adding to the uncertainty, U.S. Secretary of Labor Chavez-Deremer cautioned that the agency was unable to fully gather the necessary data for the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, raising the possibility that this particular monthly release may be canceled entirely.
Federal Reserve commentary remains varied. Vice Chair Philip Jefferson offered cautious, slightly dovish remarks on Monday, pointing to growing risks to employment and a gradual cooling trend in the labor market. His perspective contrasted with the more hawkish messaging from other Fed officials in the preceding week. Jefferson emphasized the need for policymakers to proceed with caution as interest rates approach the estimated neutral level, warning that the full extent of available government data before the next policy meeting remains uncertain.
Adding to the hawkish camp, Kansas City Fed President Jeffery Schmid stated on Friday that monetary policy should actively "counter demand growth," arguing that the Fed's current policy stance is "moderately restrictive," which he deems appropriate. Furthermore, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem suggested on Thursday that rates are now closer to neutral than to restrictive, but he stressed that the U.S. economy remains resilient. Musalem underscored the necessity for caution, noting that there is limited scope to ease policy without risking an overly accommodative stance.
Amidst these mixed messages, the likelihood of a rate cut has decreased. The CME FedWatch Tool now suggests that financial markets are pricing in a 46% probability that the Fed will cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its December meeting. This represents a significant drop from the 67% probability that markets were pricing in just one week prior.
Across the Atlantic, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is widely expected to maintain its policy rate at 0% in December, driven by forecasts of slightly increasing inflation. SNB Vice Chairman Antoine Martin recently reinforced these expectations, stating that inflation is projected to "increase slightly." The Swiss Franc is also benefiting from favorable trade news, following the Swiss government's confirmation of a new tariff agreement with the Trump administration, where the U.S. agreed to reduce tariffs on Swiss exports to 15% from 39%, offering considerable relief to the Swiss economy.
Technical Analysis
The USD/CHF pair has exhibited a sharp rebound from the 0.7893 level, having recently touched a local low of 0.7878. Crucially, this low was previously established on October 16th. Following the October low, the price reacted aggressively to the upside, eventually reaching a local high of 0.8125 on November 5th. The current price action is forming a Double Bottom pattern, which, if confirmed, suggests that the previous bullish momentum could repeat. Should this pattern hold, the next upward impulse may target the 0.8069 level, which represents an important resistance barrier for the pair.
Further supporting the bullish case, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart reached the 21 level, entering a clearly oversold zone. This signals that sellers are exhausted, significantly increasing the probability that bulls will take back control. The 100-period and 200-period Moving Averages (MAs) are positioned at 0.8008 and 0.7993, respectively. A strong, confirmed close above these key MAs would signal an acceleration of the current bullish impulse. Conversely, a definitive break below the local low would invalidate the reversal pattern and could open the door for a more sustained move to the downside.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Buy
Entry price: 0.7930
Target price: 0.8065
Stop loss: 0.7870
Validity: Nov 28, 2025 15:00:00
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