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      Dollar Breaks Below Key 99 Level - Major Turning Point for Gold?

      Tank

      Commodity

      Forex

      Summary:

      As the Federal Reserve is set to announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, markets expect rates to remain within the 4.25%-4.50% range. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks could signal future policy direction, with a dovish tone potentially triggering a strong rebound in gold.

      Buy

      XAUUSD

      End Time
      CLOSED

      3309.77

      Entry Price

      3330.00

      TP

      3300.00

      SL

      3291.62 +16.68 +0.51%

      977

      Points

      Loss

      3300.00

      SL

      3299.94

      CLOSING

      3309.77

      Entry Price

      3330.00

      TP

      Fundamentals

      With the Federal Reserve's rate decision due Wednesday, markets anticipate rates will stay between 4.25% and 4.50%. Yet, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech may hint at future policy shifts, and a dovish stance could fuel a significant rally in gold. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs are set to take effect on Friday. These geopolitical developments could sway investor sentiment across risk assets, and gold may react sharply based on market perceptions of risk and inflation. 
      The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) initially surged yesterday but sharply retreated overnight, ultimately breaking below the key 99 level today. The primary reason lies in differing interpretations of the EU-U.S. agreement (including statements from relevant officials). Key uncertainties revolve around tariffs on pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and aircraft, as well as potential quotas on specific metals and products. Thus, until trade war dynamics clarify, the DXY is expected to remain range-bound. 

      Technical Analysis

      On the daily chart, gold has formed a triangular consolidation pattern, with MACD bullish histogram bars shrinking for three consecutive sessions, which is a bearish divergence signal. Meanwhile, RSI hovers at the neutral 47 level, suggesting short-term consolidation or a downward trend. The 4H chart indicates a golden cross below the 0-axis, with the signal line and the MACD line approaching the 0-axis. Meanwhile, gold consolidates horizontally around the EMA12, signaling a potential rebound. A likely next target is the Bollinger Band midpoint and EMA50 at 3,338 and 3,346, respectively. If the breakout is strong enough to surpass 3,346 and 3,350, further upside toward 3,380 is possible. Conversely, failure to break higher could lead to a drop below the 3,300 support level, with the next key support around 3,280. Therefore, buying on dips is recommended.   
      Dollar Breaks Below Key 99 Level - Major Turning Point for Gold?_1Dollar Breaks Below Key 99 Level - Major Turning Point for Gold?_2

      Trading Recommendations

      Trading direction: Buy
      Entry price: 3310
      Target price: 3330
      Stop loss: 3300
      Support: 3310/3300/3280
      Resistance: 3338/3346/3380
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
      You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

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