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Discontent within the EU Regarding the US-EU Agreement Is Escalating, Prompting Concerns in the Euro Market
Economic
Forex
Summary:
The EURUSD declined for a second consecutive day, reaching a low of 1.1527, as the market reassessed the newly reached trade agreement between the U.S. and Europe, leading to increased caution. Market focus has now shifted to this week's significant U.S. economic data releases and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which are anticipated to be key indicators for the euro's future trajectory.
Buy
CLOSEDEURUSD
End Time
1.15500
Entry Price
1.17400
TP
1.14450
SL
1.14105 +0.00074 +0.06%
1050
Points
Loss
1.14450
SL
1.14450
CLOSING
1.15500
Entry Price
1.17400
TP
Fundamentals
The EURUSD experienced a two-day sell-off this week, briefly touching 1.1527 on Tuesday, primarily due to renewed market concerns stemming from the US-EU trade agreement. Despite initial market optimism over the avoidance of increased tariffs, a more measured assessment of the agreement's terms suggests a favorable bias towards the U.S., potentially suppressing Eurozone exports and overall economic performance.
Internal EU political backlash has been significant. French Prime Minister François Bayrou labeled the agreement "a dark day for Europe," criticizing the EU's concessions during negotiations. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz also cautioned that certain agreement provisions could severely impact Germany's export-oriented economic structure.
Concurrently, the U.S. dollar has strengthened against major currencies, benefiting from the temporary easing of trade tensions. Market focus has now shifted to the upcoming release of U.S. macroeconomic data this week, including consumer confidence indices, employment figures, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday, and the crucial non-farm payroll on Friday. These data releases are anticipated to significantly influence market risk appetite and the trajectory of the U.S. dollar.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, the recent decline in the EURUSD is viewed as a corrective phase following the high of 1.1829, with the overall upward trend not yet fully invalidated. As long as the price maintains above the 55-day SMA (currently around 1.1538), the short-term structure can still maintain a bullish bias.
However, it is worth noting that the euro has approached the upper boundary resistance of a long-term ascending channel and is nearing the Fibonacci 100% extension level of 1.1916 (calculated based on the rise from 0.9534 to 1.1274), indicating limited upside potential. At the same time, the daily MACD indicator shows a clear bearish divergence, suggesting that momentum is weakening and short-term gains are faltering. Once the 55-day SMA support is breached, it may confirm the beginning of a deeper correction phase, with initial support to watch around the 1.1450 range.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 1.1550
Target Price: 1.1740
Stop Loss: 1.1445
Valid Until: August 13, 2025 23:55:00
Support: 1.1527, 1.1483, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.1591, 1.1599, 1.1643
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