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Diplomatic Breakthrough Lifts Pound, U.S. Inflation Data May Be the Turning Point
Summary:
Driven by an unexpected de-escalation in U.S.–Iran tensions, GBP/USD surged to 1.3470, marking its highest level in four weeks.
Sell
TradingGBPUSD
EXP
1.34241
Entry Price
1.32560
TP
1.37300
SL
1.34160 +0.00223 +0.17%
0
Point
Flat
1.32560
TP
CLOSING
1.34241
Entry Price
1.37300
SL
Fundamentals
The forex market experienced a sharp shift this week, with GBP/USD rallying strongly during Wednesday’s session, breaking above the key resistance at 1.3346 and reaching a four-week high. The primary catalyst behind this move was the dramatic easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
U.S. President Donald Trump неожиданно announced a suspension of planned strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure, describing the move as a “bilateral ceasefire.” However, this came with a clear condition: the Strait of Hormuz must be reopened “immediately, fully, and safely.”
This statement triggered a swift market reaction. Risk appetite improved significantly, prompting investors to sell safe-haven assets and rotate into non-USD currencies such as the British pound. Iran responded quickly, with Foreign Minister Araghchi confirming that, during the ceasefire, Iran would coordinate with its armed forces to ensure safe passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. This development signaled the normalization of one of the world’s most critical oil shipping routes, easing prior concerns about supply disruptions and further supporting GBP strength.
Notably, Pakistan played a key mediating role in facilitating this ceasefire. Trump publicly praised Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief Asim Munir for their diplomatic efforts, marking the first tangible communication channel established between Washington and Tehran. This unexpected diplomatic breakthrough was not fully priced in by the market and became a major driver behind the pound’s outsized gains.
Meanwhile, as geopolitical risks temporarily recede, U.S. domestic data is signaling rising inflationary pressure. In March, U.S. logistics and transportation costs increased significantly, intensifying concerns about upward inflation trends. As a critical component of the supply chain, rising transport costs often pass through to end-consumer prices, pushing overall inflation higher.
Market attention is now firmly focused on the upcoming U.S. March Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. This data will provide a clearer picture of domestic price pressures amid ongoing geopolitical developments and will be crucial in shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path.
Technical Analysis
GBP/USD has rebounded from the 1.3156 low and recently accelerated higher, with market focus now on the key resistance at 1.3482.
A decisive break above 1.3482 would suggest that the downtrend from the 1.3868 high has completed its correction at 1.3156. In this case, intraday momentum is likely to turn bullish again, with potential to retest the previous high at 1.3868.
Conversely, if the pair fails to break above 1.3482 and reverses lower, the short-term outlook remains bearish. A break below 1.3158 would reinforce the continuation of the broader downtrend.
Overall, the recent rally in GBP/USD has been largely driven by easing geopolitical tensions. However, the outlook remains uncertain. On one hand, the sustainability of the U.S.–Iran ceasefire remains in question—any renewed escalation could pressure the pound. On the other hand, the upcoming U.S. CPI data will directly influence Federal Reserve policy expectations and, by extension, the U.S. dollar, thereby indirectly impacting GBP/USD.
Investors should closely monitor geopolitical developments and key economic data releases to identify trading opportunities.
Trade Recommendation
Direction: Sell
Entry: 1.3550
Target: 1.3256
Stop Loss: 1.3730
Valid Until: May 7, 2026, 23:55
Support Levels: 1.3347, 1.3267, 1.3212
Resistance Levels: 1.3482, 1.3567, 1.3662
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