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Dark Clouds Loom Overhead! Silver Prices May Crash!
Commodity
Economic
Forex
Summary:
The escalation of gold tariff risks raises concerns about silver demand; negotiations between China and the U.S. remain inconclusive, making it unlikely for silver to gain fundamental support from its industrial dual-use characteristics.
Sell
EXPIREDXAGUSD
EXP
38.500
Entry Price
37.300
TP
39.000
SL
36.707 -0.403 -1.09%
--
Point
EXPIRED
37.300
TP
36.607
CLOSING
38.500
Entry Price
39.000
SL
Fundamentals
Although the trade truce between the U.S. and the EU temporarily alleviated geopolitical tensions, persistent tariffs continue to threaten global industrial demand—a critical component of silver consumption. The majority of EU exports to the U.S. still face a 15% tariff, with inflation concerns and trade uncertainties remaining prevalent. The UK- U.S. agreement's 10% tariff lock-in indicates that elevated costs may remain entrenched across the supply chain. Given the ongoing lack of consensus in U.S.-China negotiations, silver's industrial dual-use properties may struggle to provide fundamental support. The Federal Reserve's policy decision announced today will be pivotal for silver's price trajectory. While a rate cut is not expected, any signs of a dovish shift could weaken the dollar and bolster precious metals. Conversely, a hawkish stance or an upward revision of interest rate expectations could further depress gold and silver prices.
Technical Analysis
The silver 4H timeframe indicates a consolidation with a downward bias, with Bollinger Bands exhibiting a triple contraction pattern pointing downward. Currently, the price is trending below the EMA12, and a bullish crossover in MACD could signal a potential rebound towards the middle Bollinger Band around 38.5, followed by further decline. Failure to break above EMA12 may result in a direct decline towards approximately 37.3. In the 1H timeframe, MACD is crossing below the zero-axis, forming a death cross, which is a strong bearish reversal signal. The price is oscillating within a range bounded by the upper and lower Bollinger Bands, forming a consolidation zone, while RSI shows a double top pattern, suggesting a high probability of a breakout to the downside tonight. Therefore, the current trading strategy is to go short at the highs.
Trading Recommendations
Trade Direction: Sell
Entry Price: 38.5
Target Price: 37.3
Stop Loss: 39
Support: 37.5, 37.2, 37
Resistance: 38.3, 38.5, 39
Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
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