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Currently Positioned Favorably Prior to an Upward Trend
Economic
Summary:
The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for Germany surged due to domestic political stability and advancements in trade, which should benefit the Euro.
Buy
CLOSEDEURNZD
End Time
1.88982
Entry Price
1.92800
TP
1.86800
SL
1.90069 -0.00373 -0.20%
1298
Points
Profit
1.86800
SL
1.90280
CLOSING
1.88982
Entry Price
1.92800
TP
Fundamentals
Data released on Wednesday revealed a significant improvement in investor sentiment in Germany and the Eurozone for May. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index surged to 25.2 from -14.0, surpassing the anticipated 9.8. Concurrently, Eurozone investor sentiment improved, rising to 11.6 from -18.5, also exceeding expectations.
However, assessments of the current economic situation remain notably negative. The Eurozone's Current Situation Index saw a slight uptick but remains at -42.2. This divergence suggests that while expectations for the coming months are improving, the overall economic conditions in the Eurozone are still fragile.
The EURNZD continues to be influenced by the combination of Eurozone economic growth and solid New Zealand inflation. Technically, the EURUSD's recent sharp decline from 15-year highs suggests bearish pressure.
Our near-term target for this pair is 1.8770, followed by a rebound at the bottom, as we anticipate renewed bullish interest following upcoming economic data releases. The euro is expected to benefit from the ECB's continued rate cuts. Furthermore, in an environment of improved risk sentiment, the market may favor higher-beta currencies.
The May ZEW survey for Germany showed a rebound, indicating increased optimism for economic recovery in the Eurozone, which is expected to outperform New Zealand, although the current situation index did not reflect any recovery.
We anticipate a retest of the bottom and subsequent rebound for the EURNZD in the coming days.
Technical Analysis
The EURNZD has been range-bound between 1.8800 and 1.9250 recently, indicating significant short-term divergence. In the 1D timeframe, it shows a rebound from the 1.8810 support level, yet the 1.9200 resistance remains a strong barrier. Key SMAs and momentum indicators are weakening, and the breach of multiple support levels warrants attention to critical pivot points.
Technically, the EURNZD shows bearish tendencies, although the market is approaching an optimal entry point for a potential rally.
Overall, the technical outlook is neutral to slightly bearish. Investors should consider initiating long positions near key support levels while remaining vigilant for potential reversals at resistance levels.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 1.8800
Target Price: 1.9280
Stop Loss: 1.8680
Valid Until: May 29, 2025 23:55:00
Support: 1.8812, 1.8776, 1.8712
Resistance: 1.8989, 1.9093, 1.9265
Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
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