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Core Inflation Surges, Market Zeroes In on RBA November Meeting
Economic
Forex
Summary:
Australia’s July CPI leapt to 2.8% YoY a one-year high, all but eliminating the risk of a September rate cut by the RBA. A near-term floor may be forming in EURAUD.
Buy
TradingEURAUD
EXP
1.78931
Entry Price
1.80980
TP
1.77000
SL
1.78642 -0.00177 -0.10%
0
Point
Flat
1.77000
SL
CLOSING
1.78931
Entry Price
1.80980
TP
Fundamentals
Australia’s headline consumer price index accelerated to 2.8% YoY in July, far above the 2.3% consensus and sharply higher than June’s 1.9%. The print marks the strongest annual pace since July 2024 and snaps a multi-month disinflationary trend.
Core measures firmed in tandem. Trimmed-mean CPI rose to 3.2% from 2.5%, while the weighted-median gauge climbed to 2.7% from 2.1%—both the fastest readings in three months.
The result intensifies concerns that price pressures could prove persistent. July data, as the first month of the quarter, are goods-heavy and therefore offer limited insight into services inflation, which will be clearer in subsequent releases.
For the Reserve Bank of Australia, the report is a cautionary signal rather than a trigger for panic. Policymakers will wait for the full quarterly CPI update before reassessing the stance, but today’s outcome effectively rules out a cut at the 24 September board meeting.
Absent a marked deterioration in labour-market conditions or another downside shock, November remains the more realistic window for the next policy adjustment.
Technical Analysis
The upside surprise in July CPI propelled AUD crosses sharply higher, reinforcing the RBA’s case for a measured easing cycle and removing any prospect of an accelerated easing path.
EURAUD has retraced from the 1.8155 short-term high and continues to drift lower. Intraday bias remains bearish. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.7245–1.8155 advance sits at 1.7807, virtually coinciding with the lower bound of the descending channel (now at 1.7816) and the MA55 (1.7841).
A sustained break below this confluence support would confirm completion of the up-move from 1.7245 and imply that the corrective pattern from 1.8554 has entered its third leg, exposing the 61.8% retracement at 1.7593.
Nevertheless, we view the support cluster as sufficiently robust to underpin a resumption of the broader uptrend.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Long
Entry Price: 1.7840
Target Price: 1.8098
Stop Loss: 1.7700
Valid Until: September 13, 2025, 23:55:00
Support: 1.7853/1.7810/1.7885
Resistance: 1.7922/1.7982/1.8082
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