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Can the Bears Continue?
Commodity
Summary:
The seasonal decline in demand restricts the upward movement of oil prices. Although the short-term reductionin inventories provides some support, the extent is limited. Meanwhile, the attacks related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict have increased the risk of short-term supply disruptions, and the pace of OPEC+ production increases constrains medium-term supply. As a result, the market is mainly event-driven and highly volatile.
Sell
TradingWTI
EXP
63.573
Entry Price
59.800
TP
65.100
SL
63.724 -0.313 -0.49%
0
Point
Flat
59.800
TP
CLOSING
63.573
Entry Price
65.100
SL
Fundamentals
During the day, WTI crude oil continues to trade in a narrow range between $63.00 and $64.00 per barrel. Market sentiment fluctuates as investors weigh the "expectation of seasonal demand decline" against the "sudden risks on the supply side and divergent inventory data".
In the short term, the most direct drag comes from the approaching end of the U.S. summer driving season. Traders are starting to adjust their expectations for the post-holiday demand decline. Although last week's EIA report showed a reduction in inventories compared to expectations, this reduction was not sufficient to completely alleviate concerns about the seasonal demand decline, thus limiting the momentum for the bulls to continue. Overall, the current price seems to be in a consolidation phase under the pull of two forces: "short - term inventory support" and "seasonal demand decline".
On the supply side, local geopolitics and OPEC+ policy directions jointly shape market expectations. Recently, attacks on Russian refineries and export facilities in the Russia-Ukraine conflict have heightened concerns about short-term supply disruptions, posing an upward risk to prices in the short term. On the other hand, OPEC+ has continued to adjust production in recent months to compete for market share and has stated its commitment to maintaining market stability. The overall new production capacity has partially offset the tight supply situation. In other words, if the damage to Russian facilities continues to limit the processing capacity available for export, there are still conditions for oil prices to be pushed higher. If the production expansion of OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries continues, it will impose a neutral or even bearish long-term constraint on oil prices.
Technical Analysis
From the daily chart, the recent trend of WTI has been continuously testing the range between 63.00 and 65.00. The key resistance lies in the range of 64.00-65.00 (the previous high and the dense moving-average area). If there is a breakout with increasing volume and subsequent retracement for confirmation, it is expected to advance towards the range of 66.00-68.00.
On the downside, the key support below is around 60.00. If it breaks below 60.00 and continues to decline, it may test the support level at 58.70.
Trade Recommendations
Trade Direction: Sell
Entry Price: 63.90
Target Price: 59.80
Stop Loss: 65.10
Valid Until: September 11, 2025 23:00:00
Support: 63.14/ 60.00
Resistance Levels: 64.00/65.00
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