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Bulls Regain Control, $4,500 Becomes Key Bull-Bear Inflection Point
Summary:
Gold has shifted to a short-term bullish bias, with US-Iran negotiations potentially serving as the next key catalyst.
Buy
TradingXAUUSD
EXP
4745.30
Entry Price
5200.00
TP
4475.00
SL
4749.26 -17.74 -0.37%
0
Point
Flat
4475.00
SL
CLOSING
4745.30
Entry Price
5200.00
TP
Fundamentals
Following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, financial conditions temporarily eased, supporting a rebound in risk sentiment and providing a lift to gold prices. However, the rally proved short-lived. Israel’s renewed strikes on Lebanon triggered a strong response from Iran, causing a swift reversal in safe-haven demand and erasing gold’s gains.
Despite the renewed tensions, the ceasefire agreement remains in effect for now. Meanwhile, the first round of US-Iran negotiations is set to take place in Islamabad. Should both sides deliver constructive signals, the talks may be extended, thereby exerting a sustained influence on market expectations. That said, with no formal end to hostilities, the risk of renewed escalation remains elevated.
Within this macro framework, markets are repricing previously hawkish policy expectations. Uncertainty surrounding the rate path, combined with persistent geopolitical risks, has gradually shifted gold’s short-term bias back to the upside. However, if negotiations break down or conflict escalates, risk sentiment could deteriorate rapidly, leading to heightened volatility in gold.
Technical Analysis
After encountering resistance below the $4,850 level, gold has entered a consolidation phase, with market focus gradually shifting from overhead resistance to the strength of the underlying support structure.
Although the failure to break above $4,850 indicates persistent selling pressure, the key level lies not in resistance but in the resilience above $4,500. As time progresses, this zone is increasingly evolving into a medium-term bull-bear inflection point, essentially reflecting whether institutional capital is willing to re-engage at elevated levels rather than waiting for a deeper correction.
This establishes a clear path-dependent scenario:If prices retrace toward the $4,500 area and find solid demand, it would signal that the market is forming a base. In this case, the recent pullback is more likely a consolidation within an uptrend, with potential to retest $5,000 and even higher levels.
Conversely, a break below $4,483 would weaken the current structure and open the door for further downside, with the next target potentially revisiting the $4,100 region.
Trading Strategy
Direction: Buy
Entry: 4720
Target: 5200
Stop Loss: 4475
Valid Until: 2026-05-08 23:55
Support Levels: 4697, 4605, 4551
Resistance Levels: 4800, 4856, 5015
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