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Bulls Lose Control as EURUSD Technicals Highlight Upcoming Bearish Opportunities
Central Bank
Economic
Summary:
The price has established a descending trendline, and with the price failing to break above it, we could see a new expansion to the downside targeting the 1.1289 level
Sell
TradingEURUSD
EXP
1.13860
Entry Price
1.12900
TP
1.14770
SL
1.14224 +0.00034 +0.03%
0
Point
Flat
1.12900
TP
CLOSING
1.13860
Entry Price
1.14770
SL
Final inflation data released in Germany confirmed a moderation in price pressures during June. The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) slowed to 2.4% year-on-year, down from the 2.7% recorded in May and the 2.9% observed in April. On a monthly basis, prices pulled back by 0.2%, matching preliminary estimates and following a 0.1% decline the previous month.
A similar trend was observed in France. The National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) reported that annual inflation moderated to 2.0% in June from 2.8% in May, while the monthly index recorded a 0.3% drop, compared to the 0.1% advance registered previously.
Conversely, data from Italy reflected a still fragile industrial sector. Industrial production contracted by 0.3% in May, reversing much of the 0.4% advance observed in April and exceeding the 0.2% decline expected by the market. In year-on-year terms, manufacturing production grew by 1.1%, coming in below the expectation of a 1.3% increase.
Taken together, these indicators suggest a combination of decelerating inflation and moderate economic growth, a scenario that reinforces expectations for the European Central Bank (ECB) to keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming monetary policy meeting in late July.
In the geopolitical arena, the situation in the Middle East continues to be a relevant source of uncertainty for the markets. Tehran's attacks against commercial vessels triggered a military response from the United States, whose Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed operations against more than 100 targets linked to Iranian forces in the vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz.
Subsequently, Iran launched attacks against Gulf countries hosting U.S. military bases and announced over the weekend the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to oil tanker transit. This escalation has driven energy prices higher amid fears of potential disruptions in the global crude supply.
In the United States, markets also closely follow signals coming from the Federal Reserve. Governor Christopher Waller warned that a persistently high reading of core inflation could lead the central bank to consider a rate hike in the short term. However, despite maintaining a relatively hawkish tone, Waller noted that he still sees it possible for inflation to converge toward the 2% target without the need for additional monetary policy tightening, highlighting that the labor market is increasingly closer to the maximum employment level pursued by the Fed.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, EURUSD recently pulled back below the 100-period moving average located at 1.1411, while the 200-period moving average sits a bit higher at 1.1496, tracking the broader trend. The price has established a descending trendline, and with the price failing to break above it, we could see a new expansion to the downside targeting the 1.1290 level. This area aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci expansion, where the price could encounter support.
Looking at the oscillators, the RSI is hovering at the 39 level, entering a bearish zone with room to continue developing. It is worth noting that the RSI failed to break above the 64 level, and the price action near the recent peaks was cumulative with a declining RSI, signaling a loss of strength in the upward move. Meanwhile, the MACD shows a bearish histogram that is starting to gain depth, and with the signal lines crossing into negative territory, the overall momentum favors the bears.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Sell
Entry price: 1.1386
Target price: 1.1290
Stop loss: 1.1477
Validity: Jul 24, 2026 15:00:00
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