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Bullish Potential Following Technical Retracement to Key Fibonacci Support
Forex
Economic
Summary:
If these dynamic support levels are sustained, they could serve as a structural springboard for a renewed bullish impulse, potentially challenging the 1.1625 resistance once more.
Buy
TradingEURUSD
EXP
1.15348
Entry Price
1.16250
TP
1.14850
SL
1.15352 -0.00032 -0.03%
0
Point
Flat
1.14850
SL
CLOSING
1.15348
Entry Price
1.16250
TP
In a recent national address, President Trump provided a strategic update regarding the administration's stance on Iran. The central narrative propagated by the White House focused on the assertion that "fundamental U.S. strategic objectives" are nearing completion. Trump reinforced this perspective by claiming a resolution would materialize "very quickly," suggesting the nation is "very close" to achieving its final goals. This rhetoric is strategically designed to soothe the American public and mitigate anxieties surrounding a potential long-term military quagmire, reminiscent of past engagements in Iraq, Afghanistan, or Vietnam.
However, the President refrained from clarifying these definitionally ambiguous objectives. Simultaneously, the address maintained a dual-track approach, pairing these assurances with hawkish rhetoric that threatened Iran with potentially destructive escalation—a pivot that commanded significant market and media attention.
On the economic front, the U.S. continues to exhibit robust momentum. The ISM Manufacturing PMI ascended to 52.7 in March, outperforming analyst expectations and building upon previous gains. The labor market also delivered a notably hawkish surprise, as the ADP Employment Change reported an addition of 62,000 positions, vastly exceeding the projected 40,000. Furthermore, consumer resilience was underscored by a 0.6% surge in February Retail Sales, signaling a decisive recovery from January’s downwardly revised contraction.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market participants have aggressively recalibrated their expectations, now widely anticipating that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates within the 3.50%–3.75% range for the remainder of the year. This marks a significant departure from previous forecasts, which had priced in at least two rate cuts.
Meanwhile, European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers adopted a similarly cautious stance on Thursday. Governing Council member Gediminas Šimkus remarked that it is "too early to determine" the bank's requirements for April, emphasizing the need for prudence as the landscape shifts. Fabio Panetta echoed these concerns, noting that volatility in energy markets poses risks not only to inflation and growth but also to broader financial stability. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel noted that an interest rate hike during the April policy meeting remains a distinct possibility, arguing that "each passing day contributes to heightened inflationary risks."
Technical Analysis
From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD pair recently executed a retracement that successfully tested the 0.618 Fibonacci level at 1.1513. This move followed a rejection from the 1.1625 resistance zone, which has functioned as a formidable ceiling on two recent occasions. Critically, price action demonstrated immediate resilience at this Fibonacci support, subsequently reclaiming the 200-period Moving Average (MA) at 1.1534 and the 100-period MA at 1.1549.
If these dynamic support levels are sustained, they could serve as a structural springboard for a renewed bullish impulse, potentially challenging the 1.1625 resistance once more. A decisive break above this supply wall would confirm the continuation of the broader bullish trend.
Our analysis of momentum indicators reinforces this constructive outlook. The RSI recently moderated to the 37 level, bordering on—but not quite entering—oversold territory. As long as the pair fails to establish lower lows, the broader bullish trend remains technically intact, as the RSI typically avoids deep oversold extremes in such environments. Simultaneously, the MACD is printing a bearish histogram; however, the bars are visibly losing depth, hinting at an impending bullish transition.
With the signal lines still entrenched in positive territory, the path of least resistance appears to favor a continuation of the upward trajectory. Traders should monitor the 1.1534–1.1549 MA cluster closely for confirmation of a structural base.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Buy
Entry price: 1.1535
Target price: 1.1625
Stop loss: 1.1485
Validity: Apr 15, 2026 15:00:00
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