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Bullish Momentum Poised to Resume as 100-Period Moving Average Provides Dynamic Support
Forex
Economic
Summary:
Provided this support cluster remains intact, the pair is well-positioned to launch a new bullish impulse targeting the 1.2045 resistance area.
Buy
TradingEURUSD
EXP
1.18684
Entry Price
1.20450
TP
1.17500
SL
1.18494 -0.00182 -0.15%
0
Point
Flat
1.17500
SL
CLOSING
1.18684
Entry Price
1.20450
TP
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently expressed a high degree of confidence regarding the current inflationary trajectory, suggesting that price pressures are well-positioned to return to the Federal Reserve's 2% target by mid-2026. Bessent emphasized that the administration's goal is not a full "decoupling" from China, but rather a strategic "de-risking" of the economic relationship. Furthermore, he highlighted a strong probability of 3% GDP growth in 2025, noting that the bond market's current stability reflects the government's efforts to achieve fiscal order.
Complementing this outlook, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee remarked on Friday that while interest rates are fundamentally prepared for further declines, the pace of these cuts remains contingent on a more decisive cooling of services inflation. While acknowledging both encouraging and concerning aspects of recent CPI data, Goolsbee noted that the impact of tariffs may have already peaked. He characterized the robust January employment figures as a hopeful sign of stability, describing the labor market as resilient with only a modest, controlled cooling.
The narrative of labor market stabilization was further supported by the latest Initial Jobless Claims report. For the week ending February 7, claims rose to 227,000; although this was a decrease from the prior week's 232,000, it surpassed the market consensus of 222,000. Despite this marginal uptick, the four-week moving average remains anchored at approximately 219,500. This data followed a significant downward revision by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which adjusted 2025 nonfarm employment lower by 898,000 positions. This revision effectively reduced the monthly job creation average from 49,000 to just 15,000. Despite these structural adjustments, the unemployment rate edged lower to 4.3%, and average hourly earnings advanced by 0.4% month-over-month, suggesting persistent wage pressures.
Across the Atlantic, the Eurozone economy demonstrated consistent resilience, expanding by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2025. This figure matched the growth seen in the third quarter and aligned perfectly with analyst estimates. On an annual basis, GDP growth for the bloc reached 1.4%, outperforming the 1.3% forecast. Additionally, Eurozone employment metrics remained stable, posting a 0.2% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 0.6% rise year-over-year.
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD has entered a necessary consolidation phase following a powerful bullish extension that originated at 1.1583 on January 18 and peaked at a local high of 1.2081 on January 27.
The subsequent corrective move has found substantial dynamic support near the 100-period Moving Average, currently situated at 1.1728, while the 200-period MA tracks closely at 1.1736. This moving average confluence, coupled with a primary horizontal support at 1.1846, forms a critical value zone. Provided this support cluster remains intact, the pair is well-positioned to launch a new bullish impulse targeting the 1.2045 resistance area.
Our analysis of technical oscillators reinforces the potential for an upside reversal. The RSI has stabilized at the 49 level, reflecting a neutral state that offers ample room for an expansionary move. Simultaneously, the MACD signal lines are comfortably positioned above the neutral threshold.
Notably, the MACD histogram is printing progressively smaller bearish bars, signaling that the downward momentum is rapidly exhausting. Should the histogram transition into positive territory with increasing depth, it would provide the necessary technical confirmation for a sustained rally toward the recent peaks.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Buy
Entry price: 1.1868
Target price: 1.2045
Stop loss: 1.1750
Validity: Feb 26, 2026 15:00:00
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