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Bullish Momentum May Continue After Trendline Break
Central Bank
Economic
Summary:
The breakout followed a strong rebound from the 200-period moving average on the 30-minute chart, which held firm at 1.3576.
Buy
CLOSEDGBPUSD
End Time
1.37197
Entry Price
1.37700
TP
1.36950
SL
1.36504 +0.00062 +0.05%
163
Points
Profit
1.36950
SL
1.37360
CLOSING
1.37197
Entry Price
1.37700
TP
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed confidence that the “One Big Beautiful Bill” will move forward in the coming hours. This piece of legislation, which narrowly passed the Senate over the weekend, calls for a comprehensive overhaul of the tax code. Key provisions include wide-reaching deductions financed by cuts to Medicaid and green energy programs.
Should this bill be approved, it is expected to increase the federal deficit by $3.8 trillion, potentially exerting downward pressure on the U.S. dollar and fueling further demand for gold as a hedge against fiscal instability.
On the economic front, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for June is forecast to rise slightly from 48.5 to 48.8, suggesting a modest rebound in the manufacturing sector. Additionally, the ADP employment report is expected to show a strong recovery in private-sector job creation, with 85,000 jobs added compared to 37,000 in the previous month.
However, the more critical Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, due later this week, is expected to show signs of a cooling labor market. Estimates suggest that the U.S. economy added only 110,000 jobs in June, down from 139,000 in May. The unemployment rate is forecast to tick up from 4.2% to 4.3%, further supporting the narrative of slowing economic momentum.
Meanwhile, a key trade agreement between the U.S. and the U.K. went into effect on Monday, leading to a reduction in U.S. tariffs on certain U.K. industrial goods, which could help improve trade relations between the two nations.
On the U.K. economic front, GDP data released earlier on Monday showed that the British economy grew by 0.7% in Q1, matching preliminary estimates and marking the strongest quarterly growth in a year. On a year-over-year basis, GDP increased by 1.3%, in line with the initial estimate and unchanged from Q4 2024.
However, a closer look at the underlying data reveals some concerning trends. Real household disposable income fell by 1.0%, the largest drop since early 2023, as rising prices and tax burdens eroded consumer purchasing power. Household savings also slipped to 10.9% from 12.0%, suggesting that consumers are increasingly relying on their savings to sustain spending.
Adding to the cautious sentiment, the U.K.’s current account deficit widened to £23.46 billion in Q1, up from £21.03 billion in the previous quarter and significantly exceeding market expectations of a £19.7 billion gap.
Technical Analysis
GBP/USD recently broke through a bearish trendline, a move that could spark a bullish impulse toward the local high of 1.3769 reached on June 26. This level now stands as the next key resistance zone. The breakout followed a strong rebound from the 200-period moving average on the 30-minute chart, which held firm at 1.3576. The price reversed from this support zone and headed towards the trendline, while the 100-period moving average surged higher, signaling potential for a strong upward move.
With the RSI currently at 62, indicating a move toward overbought conditions, there may be a retest of the broken trendline, which could now act as support after previously serving as resistance. Such a retest would help confirm the development of a strong bullish trend. On the other hand, if the price fails to hold above the trendline and breaks decisively below it, the bearish sentiment could resume, suggesting that the downtrend in GBP/USD remains intact.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Buy
Entry price: 1.3720
Target price: 1.3770
Stop loss: 1.3695
Validity: Jul 10, 2025 15:00:00
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