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Bullish Momentum Intact, Profit-Taking Risk Eyed
Commodity
Summary:
Market expectations for Fed rate cuts remain a structural tailwind for bullion. However, the accumulation of short-term long profits raises the probability of a technical retracement.
Buy
CLOSEDXAUUSD
End Time
4190.36
Entry Price
4290.00
TP
4150.00
SL
4197.91 -9.26 -0.22%
2084
Points
Profit
4150.00
SL
4211.20
CLOSING
4190.36
Entry Price
4290.00
TP
Fundamentals
The market's focus is now squarely on next week's FOMC meeting and the incoming data slate. With a string of softening macro prints, the implied probability of a Fed cut has been repriced higher, dragging both the DXY and real 10-yr UST yields lower and thereby providing a structural tail-wind for gold. However, investors remain cautious amid the tug-of-war between rate-cut expectations and safe-haven demand, frequently taking profit after short-term gains and leaving gold prices whipsawing within a tight range.
ETF inflows and the continued bid from official-sector buyers (notably EM central banks) still form the medium-term demand floor, but fast-money positioning is hyper-sensitive to scheduled macro catalysts (NFP, PCE) as well as headline-driven geopol risk. Any print or headline that deviates from consensus can trigger an outsized volatility spike.
Moreover, global-rate complex and sovereign-bond flow dynamics are exerting cross-asset gravitational pull on precious-metal valuations. In the Asian session, a tail-less, exceptionally high bid-to-cover ratio at the 10-yr JGB reopening compressed the benchmark yield by around 4 bp. This regional duration richening, convolved with a softening DXY, is re-pricing the cross-currency carry of gold and amplifying physical uptake in yen terms. With the Fed in blackout, the market is warehousing delta risk into tomorrow's claims and core PCE releases, opting for a "tactical sideline" posture that is powering rapid risk-off/risk-on whipsaws between safe-haven bullion and cyclical beta.
At the macro level, the dominant fundamental narrative today is that dovish policy repricing supplies cyclical tailwinds, yet event-driven headline risk and systematic profit-taking are jointly imposing an asymmetric ceiling that frustrates the emergence of a sustained directional extension.
Technical Analysis
From the daily chart, price action has completed a textbook symmetrical-triangle breakout. The clearance of the 4245 structural high validates the pattern and projects the next measured-move objective to 4300.
Immediate short-term resistance is now the 4200–4241 band. A high-conviction, volume-confirmed breakout followed by a daily close above 4241 activates the 4300 extension. Support is watched at 4175–4160. Violation on a closing basis would open a mean-reversion probe toward the 4130–4100 liquidity pocket.
Technically, the simple-moving-average architecture remains in perfect bullish order, underpinning trend persistence. RSI is holding in the upper-neutral band, evidencing positive momentum divergence without extreme overbought conditions.
A thin-volume, news-driven spike into the 4241–4300 corridor would flag a bull-trap and elevate the probability of an intraday bullish-to-bearish reversal (technical give-back).
Trade Recommendations
Trade Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 4190.00
Target Price: 4290.00
Stop Loss: 4150.00
Valid Until: December 18, 2025, 23:00:00
Support: 4175.05/4163.82
Resistance Levels: 4264.66/4300.00
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