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Bullish Momentum Could Return From Local Support
Central Bank
Economic
Summary:
A sustained close above these levels, followed by a decisive break of the trendline, could open the door to a more extended bullish move.
Buy
TradingUSDCHF
EXP
0.80093
Entry Price
0.80700
TP
0.79800
SL
0.79978 -0.00130 -0.16%
0
Point
Flat
0.79800
SL
CLOSING
0.80093
Entry Price
0.80700
TP
Switzerland’s Q2 GDP figures showed the economy slowed to an annual growth rate of 1.2%, down from 1.8% in the previous quarter and weaker than expectations of 1.4%. The slowdown highlights the challenges facing the Swiss economy amid global headwinds. Adding to the soft tone, the KOF Leading Indicator—a forward-looking gauge of economic activity—dropped to 97.4 in August, falling from 101.3 in July and undershooting market expectations for a milder decline to 98.0.
In contrast, the Swiss labor market held steady. Employment increased 0.6% YoY to 5.532 million in Q2, matching the pace of the prior quarter. The expansion was largely driven by the services sector, which grew 0.9% to reach 4.402 million, underscoring its role as the backbone of job creation. On the policy front, the Swiss government announced new initiatives aimed at enhancing the country’s competitiveness as a business hub, following the imposition of steep 39% U.S. import tariffs on Swiss goods. Measures include efforts to ease regulatory burdens on companies, with officials signaling that costly new rules could be postponed to safeguard investment and growth.
Across the Atlantic, political uncertainty surrounding the U.S. central bank persists. President Donald Trump’s push to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook is advancing through the courts, yet the White House is already preparing for her replacement. Trump stated that “very good people” are being considered, noting Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is leading the selection process. Reports suggest that Stephen Miran—initially nominated to replace Adriana Kugler on the Fed Board—could be redirected to Cook’s position, potentially extending his role at the central bank. Senate hearings for Miran’s nomination are scheduled for next week, adding another layer of scrutiny over Fed leadership.
On the data front, the second estimate of Q2 U.S. GDP showed an annualized growth rate of 3.3%, outpacing expectations of 3.1% and improving from the prior 3.0% reading. Inflation metrics were slightly softer: both the GDP Price Index and preliminary headline PCE prices eased to 2.0% from 2.1%, while core PCE advanced 2.5% QoQ, just under the forecast of 2.6%. Weekly jobless claims dipped to 229K, slightly better than the 230K expected and down from a revised 234K, reinforcing the view of a resilient labor market.
Housing data, however, remained weak. Pending home sales declined 0.4% in July, a sharper drop than the 0.1% expected, though still an improvement from June’s 0.8% fall. Higher borrowing costs and affordability pressures continue to weigh on buyer demand, keeping the sector under strain.
From the Fed, New York President John Williams described the U.S. economy as “slowing, not stalling.” He highlighted that GDP growth has eased to around 1.0%–1.5%, while labor market momentum has moderated. Williams reaffirmed that policy remains in a “moderately restrictive” stance, with rates above neutral, and reiterated that rate cuts could be appropriate over time if the economy unfolds in line with expectations.
Treasury markets reflected this dovish tilt. The 10-year yield slipped 2.5 basis points to 4.215%, while real yields dropped three basis points to 1.785%. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are pricing an 87% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in September, with another cut anticipated before year-end.
Technical Analysis
The USDCHF pair has bounced from the 0.8000 level, which continues to act as a key support. Repeated failures to break lower could encourage a corrective rebound toward the descending trendline around 0.8064. The 100- and 200-period moving averages, positioned at 0.8059 and 0.8041 on the 4-hour chart, overlap with this zone, suggesting a strong confluence of resistance. A sustained close above these levels, followed by a decisive break of the trendline, could open the door to a more extended bullish move.
On the other hand, a clean break below the 0.8000 threshold would expose the pair to deeper downside risk. The RSI only reached 39 during the recent leg lower, leaving room for bearish momentum to reassert itself. A failure to hold 0.8000 would therefore invalidate the short-term bullish setup and potentially trigger a more significant downward extension.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Buy
Entry price: 0.8010
Target price: 0.8070
Stop loss: 0.7980
Validity: Sep 05, 2025 15:00:00
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