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Bullish Momentum Could Build Following a Breakout Above Local Resistance
Economic
Forex
Summary:
The indicator still has sufficient room to advance before reaching overbought levels, suggesting that the current recovery could continue developing without facing immediate momentum constraints.
Buy
TradingEURUSD
EXP
1.11954
Entry Price
1.13750
TP
1.11100
SL
1.12317 +0.00415 +0.37%
0
Point
Flat
1.11100
SL
CLOSING
1.11954
Entry Price
1.13750
TP
Germany's S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was confirmed at 54.2 in October, marking its second-highest reading in nearly four and a half years, just below the recent peak recorded in August. The figure also represented an improvement from 53.9 in September, pointing to continued expansion in the country's manufacturing sector.
Meanwhile, German retail sales, an important indicator of consumer spending, declined by 2.0% month over month in September, following a 1.2% increase in August, revised downward from 1.3%. The latest reading was considerably weaker than market expectations of a 0.4% increase. On an annual basis, retail sales fell by 2.3% in September, compared with the previous decline of 0.3%, which was revised from -0.4%, indicating a deterioration in consumer spending activity.
Meanwhile, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and Governor of the National Bank of Slovakia (NBS), Peter Kazimir, stated during Monday's European trading session that the focus is increasingly shifting toward how much further monetary policy tightening may still be necessary. His comments highlight the ongoing debate among policymakers over the appropriate direction of interest rates as they assess the latest economic and inflation developments.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that consultations through Qatari and Pakistani mediators had become "very intensive," adding that Tehran had presented its conditions and proposal, while further progress would depend on Washington's "political rationality." He also emphasized that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remained conditional on the US accepting Iran's demands, including ending its naval blockade and lifting sanctions. Oil prices fell by more than 4% on Monday as traders reacted to encouraging diplomatic developments in the Middle East, raising hopes that tensions in the region could ease.
The Federal Reserve voted 10-2 to keep interest rates unchanged within the 3.75%–4.00% range in October, following the 25-basis-point (bps) increase in September. The decision reflects a more patient approach as policymakers continue to assess inflation developments and the broader economic outlook. According to CME FedWatch, traders currently assign a 72% probability to another interest rate increase in December.
Meanwhile, the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased to 55.5 in October from 54.5 in the previous month, exceeding market expectations of 54.6. On the other hand, the Prices Paid Index moderated to 75.2 from 77.9, coming in below the forecast of 77 and indicating some easing in manufacturing input cost pressures.
Technical Analysis
EURUSD appears to be recovering from the local lows reached at 1.1105 on October 29. Since then, the pair has been consolidating its recent gains and has now broken above the descending trendline. This breakout is taking place alongside a move above the 100-period moving average at 1.1193 and the 200-period moving average at 1.1267, with price attempting to establish a position above both levels. If the pair manages to remain above the broken trendline, a successful retest of the volume accumulation area could provide further buying opportunities, potentially opening the way toward 1.1375, a local resistance level established in late September.
Looking at the oscillators, the RSI has rebounded from oversold territory and currently stands at 54, placing it back in bullish territory. The indicator still has sufficient room to advance before reaching overbought levels, suggesting that the current recovery could continue developing without facing immediate momentum constraints. Meanwhile, the MACD is showing a bullish histogram that has started to lose some depth. However, its signal lines have already crossed into bullish territory, and if they begin to gain further depth, both components could reinforce the upward scenario, suggesting that further gains may represent the path of least resistance.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Buy
Entry price: 1.1193
Target price: 1.1375
Stop loss: 1.1110
Validity: Nov 13, 2026 15:00:00
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